Projected Parkinson's disease cases worldwide set to hit 25 million by 2050
Key takeaways:
- The number of Parkinson’s disease cases globally is estimated to increase by 112% from 2021 to 2050.
- Population aging was forecasted to be the greatest contributor of this rise.
Over 25 million people globally will be living with Parkinsons’ disease by 2050, according to a new analysis published in BMJ.
The researchers noted that several factors, primarily population aging, significantly contributed to the findings. The forecast model “can be used to plan control measures and call for urgent actions in meeting the increasing health care demands of patients with Parkinson’s disease,” they wrote.
A comprehensive forecast of the prevalence of Parkinson’s disease is critical “as it plays a crucial role in gaining insights into future epidemic patterns, facilitating proactive management, enabling informed policy decisions and guiding public health interventions,” Dongning Su, from Capital Medical University in China, and colleagues wrote.
In the analysis, the researchers used 2021 data from the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate overall, age-, sex- and year-specific prevalence of Parkinson’s disease across 195 countries and territories from 2021 to 2050.
They reported that 25.2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 21.7-30.1) people are projected to be living with Parkinson’s disease worldwide in 2050, equaling a 112% (95% UI, 71%-152%) increase during the study period.
The researchers’ analysis estimated the prevalence of Parkinson’s disease to be 267 (95% UI, 230-320) cases per 100,000 people in 2050, representing a rise of 76% (95% UI, 56%-125%) from 2021.
Meanwhile, Su and colleagues forecasted age-standardized prevalence of the disease in 2050 to be 216 (95% UI, 168-281) per 100,000, for an increase of 55% (95% UI, 50%-60%) from 2021.
The largest number of Parkinson’s disease cases are predicted for East Asia (10.9 million) and South Asia (6.8 million).
Su and colleagues pointed out that population aging (89%) served as the primary contributor to the increase in cases during the study period, followed by population growth (20%) and changes in prevalence (3%).
The researchers reported that those aged 80 years or older are projected to have the greatest increase in the number of Parkinson’s disease cases (196%; 95% UI, 143%-235%) from 2021 to 2050.
The researchers acknowledged some study limitations, which included the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on estimations not being considered, a lack of quality data in some countries and an inability to forecast the prevalence of risk factors for Parkinson’s disease.
Public health interventions, “which may alter the prevalence of risk/protective factors, offer promising prospects for arresting the universal rise in prevalence of Parkinson’s disease in the future,” they explained.
“Given the inevitable population ageing, population growth and disability experienced by individuals with Parkinson’s disease owing to its chronic nature, an urgent need exists for future research to focus on the development of novel drugs, gene engineering techniques and cell replacement therapies that are aimed at modifying the course of the disease and improving patients’ quality of life,” they concluded.