Reducing certain meat intake could significantly reduce chronic disease, death

Key takeaways:

• A 30% reduction in unprocessed red meat intake could lead to 46,100 fewer deaths in a 10-year period.
• The researchers called on the Dietary Guidelines for Americans to recommend limiting processed meats.

Reductions in unprocessed red meat and processed meat consumption by 30% over a decade led to substantial reductions in chronic diseases and mortality among adults in the United States, a microsimulation study showed.

Previous research has tied red meat to several adverse health conditions like type 2 diabetes, ischemic heart disease and colorectal cancer.

“Generally, results suggest that unprocessed red meat consumption could increase chronic disease risk, but evidence remains scarce, preventing specific and conclusive recommendations,” Joe Kennedy, PhD, research fellow at the University of Edinburgh, and colleagues wrote in Lancet Planetary Health.

Researchers developed a microsimulation model to estimate how reductions in unprocessed red meat and processed meat may affect rates of chronic diseases, including type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and colorectal cancer, and death over a 10-year period. They created a simulated U.S. population of 8,665 individuals (51.9% women; mean age, 49.5 years), representing 242,021,876 U.S. adults with data from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) conducted in 2015-2016 and 2017-2018.

Simulation scenarios included reductions of 5%, 10%, 30%, 50%, 75% and 100% in grams consumed of unprocessed red meat, processed meat or both.

Mean daily consumption of processed meat at baseline was 29.1 g and 46.7 g of unprocessed red meat, with a 30% reduction corresponding to a daily consumption of 8.7 g of processed meat and 14 g of unprocessed red meat.

Results showed that reducing processed meat consumption by 30% could result in:

• 352,900 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 345,500-359,900) fewer occurrences of type 2 diabetes;
• 92,500 (95% UI, 85,600-99,900) fewer occurrences of cardiovascular disease;
• 53,300 (95% UI, 51,400-55,000) fewer occurrences of colorectal cancer; and
• 16,700 (95% UI, 15,300-17,700) fewer all-cause deaths.

Moreover, a 30% reduction in consumption of unprocessed red meat could result in:

• 732,600 (95% UI, 725,700-740,400) fewer occurrences of type 2 diabetes;
• 291,500 (95% UI, 283,900-298,800) fewer occurrences of CVD;
• 32,200 (95% UI, 31,500-32,700) fewer occurrences of colorectal cancer; and
• 46,100 (95% UI, 45,300-47,200) fewer all-cause deaths.

Researchers also found that a 30% reduction in both processed meat and unprocessed read meat could lead to:

• 1,073,400 (95% UI, 1,060,100-1,084,700) fewer occurrences of type 2 diabetes;
• 382,400 (95% UI, 372,100-391,000) fewer occurrences of CVD;
• 84,400 (95% UI, 82,100-86,200) fewer occurrences of colorectal cancer; and
• 62,200 (95% UI, 60,600-64,400) fewer all-cause deaths.

“The underlying mechanisms through which processed meat and unprocessed red meat influence the development of chronic diseases are not fully understood,” the researchers wrote. “Associations between chronic diseases and processed meat are thought to be due to high sodium content, nitrites and nitrates. The way in which red meat is prepared also contributes to risk of chronic disease.”

Kennedy and colleagues suggested that the Dietary Guidelines for Americans include recommendations for limiting processed meat intake in their 2025 update.

“This recommendation would be consistent with existing recommendations to cut down on sodium and saturated fat and that most intake of meats and poultry should be from fresh, frozen or canned forms vs. processed meats,” they wrote. “Such a change could have widespread implications, especially for children and young people in the U.S.”