Life expectancy continues to decline amid COVID-19 pandemic
Provisional data from the CDC revealed a 1.5-year decline in life expectancy in the United States from 2019 to 2020.
An earlier report released in February estimated that life expectancy declined 1 year in the first half of 2020.
Elizabeth Arias, PhD, a member of the statistical analysis and research team at the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics, and colleagues estimated that life expectancy decreased from 78.8 years in 2019 to 77.3 years in 2020. This is the largest 1-year decline in life expectancy since World War II, during which life expectancy declined 2.9 years between 1942 and 1943, according to the Primary Care Collaborative.
The decline in life expectancy from 2019 to 2020 was primarily due to increases in mortality from COVID-19, which contributed to 73.8% of the decline. Other contributions included unintentional injuries (11.2%), homicide (3.1%), diabetes (2.5%) and chronic liver disease and cirrhosis (2.3%).
Arias and colleagues said the decline would have been even greater, but it was offset by decreases in mortality due to cancer (45.2%), chronic lower respiratory diseases (20.8%), heart disease (5.0%), suicide (4.6%) and certain conditions in the perinatal period (4.0%).
The report also showed that life expectancy declined 1.8 years among men, from 76.3 years in 2019 to 74.5 years in 2020, and 1.2 years among women, from 81.4 years in 2019 to 80.2 years in 2020.
The largest decline in life expectancy was among Hispanic men, which declined from 79 years in 2019 to 75.3 years in 2020. Overall, the life expectancy of all Hispanic patients dropped from 81.8 years to 78.8 years.
The data further showed that life expectancy dropped from 74.7 years to 71.8 years among the non-Hispanic Black population, and from 78.8 years in 2019 to 77.6 years among the non-Hispanic white population.
“Mortality due to COVID-19 had, by far, the single greatest effect on the decline in life expectancy,” Arias and colleagues wrote. “Among the causes contributing negatively to the change in life expectancy, COVID-19 contributed 90% for the Hispanic population, 67.9% for the non-Hispanic white population, and 59.3% for the non-Hispanic Black population.”
References:
National Vital Statistics System. Provisional life expectancy estimates for 2020. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr015-508.pdf. Accessed July 22, 2021.
Primary Care Collaborative. Life expectancy in the U.S. declined a year and half in 2020. https://www.pcpcc.org/2021/07/21/life-expectancy-us-declined-year-and-half-2020. Accessed July 22, 2021.
Perspective
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It is very concerning and saddening that we had a fall in life expectancy in just 1 year. The more concerning part of the data is the disproportionate impact on racial and ethnic minorities. This is not surprising given the data we have seen over the last year, but it is definitely something that we need to pay attention to and be vigilant about.
Going forward, whether life expectancy increases or decreases depends on how we decide to manage this pandemic and address these data. We know what the problems are. We have a rapidly surging pandemic right now with the Delta variant, not just in the country but also around the world. What measures are we willing to implement to counter the surge in infections? What measures are we willing to take to try to get people vaccinated?
My fear is that we are going to see a disproportionate effect on young people. My other fear is that these numbers reflect immediate mortality, but we are still learning about the long-term repercussions of COVID-19 and how they might affect mortality. Investing and understanding all this is going to be important.
While these data are concerning, we have the power to change things. We need to stop politicizing this pandemic and really look at the science and do what is right by the people of our country. This will involve closing the gaps in disparities rather than widening them and investing in things like mental health.
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These findings are entirely consistent with the country’s experience over the pandemic period. It certainly highlights the disparities that exist in the U.S. population.
Life expectancy will most likely rebound once the pandemic is over. There is no specific reason to believe that any societal or health care changes made during COVID-19 will negatively impact health and longevity once the acute impact of the disease resolves. While it is likely that COVID-19 is here to stay in a manner somewhat analogous to influenza, the overall impact on life expectancy will be small compared to what occurred in 2020.
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National Vital Statistics System. Provisional life expectancy estimates for 2020. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr015-508.pdf. Accessed July 22, 2021.
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