Q&A: COVID-19 disrupts 2020 census

The negative downstream effects of the COVID-19 pandemic may extend to the United States census, a business and economy expert told Healio Primary Care.

“It’s still too early to say, but I will not be surprised if the Census Bureau ends up pushing back the date of releasing the results,” said Christiadi, PhD, research associate at the John Chambers College of Business and Economics at West Virginia University.

Christiadi discussed how COVID-19 is impacting the decennial survey, the populations that will be affected most by the census disruption, and more. – by Janel Miller

Q: How is COVID-19 complicating the 2020 census?

 

A: COVID-19 does complicate the 2020 census, and because of that the U.S. Census Bureau has made operational adjustments, mostly by extending the data collection schedules. COVID-19 greatly affects the availability of certain population groups being in their correct place of residence. For example, students may not be available in their dorms or apartments, prisoners or people in nursing homes may be moved to another place for safety reason and people may be at the hospital or moved somewhere else due to economic hardship or safety reasons.

COVID-19 also affects enumerators’ mobility. The fact that people can now self-respond to the 2020 census online greatly mitigates the impact of COVID-19. Still, data collection and data processing will require more work, take longer, and as a result, likely increase the overall operational costs.

Q: Who is impacted most in your state?

A: Among the most impacted is the college population. We can classify college students based on where they live: those living in the school dorms and those living off campus. Due to COVID-19, most students are no longer at their own apartments or their school dorms — places that represent their correct place of residence.

To count students living in the school dorms, the Census Bureau typically contacts each of the colleges around April 1, work with school housing authorities and ask all students living there to provide their individual information.

Now that students are not at the dorms, the school will have to do it. The school will likely need students’ consent to give their private information to the Census Bureau. While this is technically possible, it is not the preferred method. It requires more work, and there is a chance the school does not have all the information requested in the questionnaire such as race or date of birth.

Students living outside of the school dorms typically provide their individual information by responding to the census questionnaire. If living alone, they fill out the questionnaire for themselves; if living with roommates, they fill up the questionnaire for themselves and their roommates.

This year, however, the schools’ decisions to send college students home happened to be around the same time as the Census Bureau sent the 2020 Census invitation letter, about a week before students left for their spring break. I saw that some students received the invitation letter and filed the online response right away. However, I saw the possibility that many of them still didn’t get the invitation letter by the time they left for their spring break. Some may have received the letter but have not responded. After the spring break, most will stay at their parents’ house. If they didn’t get the invitation letter before then, they may never get the letter even though the Census Bureau sent a follow-up letter. If they happen to be unaware of the 2020 Census or their responsibility to get themselves counted, they may end up being not counted. For those aware and trying to respond after the spring break, many will have to fill out the information for their roommates, too. Since their roommates now live with their parents somewhere, this could be too much of a hassle and could result in another nonresponse.

Another possibility is that since they now live with their parents, they could be included as part of their parents’ household members. In this case, they are counted but at their parents’ house, which is incorrect. Another possibility is that they are included in both the response for their roommates and for their parents, which results in duplicates.

There may also be some complications with counting international students and domestic students who will graduate in the spring semester. By definition, they all should be counted as residents of their college town (the place in which they lived as students). However, if they now live in their own country or with their parents, and will not go back to their school anymore, it is very possible they no longer consider themselves residents of their college town.

All these complications may result in college population in the college town being under-counted. If the under-count results in population loss, that could give a bad signal about the local economy. Additionally, as in any area, being under-counted can translate into fewer federal funding allocated into the local economy. Keep in mind, however, that the results of the decennial censuses are used as a benchmark for the annual population estimates in the next 10 years. Areas under-counted in 2020 will continue to be under-counted until 2029. Having said that, I am sure the Census Bureau will apply all the verification and calibration methods necessary to minimize counting errors.

Another group that can be most affected is the hard-to-count areas (eg, rural areas where many people don’t have city-style addresses) and consequently tend to have low responses. The Census Bureau typically ends up following up with field visits. However, COVID-19 will make field visits more challenging ... people may not be as welcoming to census takers visiting their house. This will make the whole process of field visits longer than was originally planned, and that could mean higher operational cost.

My hope is that everyone is aware about their responsibility to respond to the 2020 census — available at www.my2020census.gov — and find a way to respond properly. If they have questions, they can call 1-844-330-2020. The deadline for responding is now extended to July 31.

Disclosure: Christiadi reports no relevant financial disclosures.