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Researchers project organ shortage for LT over next decade

Researchers from the University of Michigan have determined a shortage of donor organs will be prevalent in liver transplantation through 2025, according to published data in Liver Transplantation.

“We are seeing worsening organ availability and increased wait times for transplantation across the country,” Neehar Parikh, MD, MS, division of gastroenterology, University of Michigan Health System, told Healio.com/Hepatology. “U.S. population demographic changes will continue to impact the availability of organs for transplantation. We specifically were interested in liver transplantation availability and projected [this] based on population changes over the next decade, including changes in population growth, age, race, body mass index and regional variation in population growth.”

Neehar Parikh

Parikh and colleagues analyzed data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database of all adult donors from 2000 to 2012 and calculated the total number of donors available and transplanted donor livers separated by age, race, and BMI group per year. This data, along with data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and CDC were used with population age and race projections from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service to make national and regional projections of available donors and donor liver utilization between 2014 and 2025, according to the research.

The researchers found the projected adult population growth in the U.S. between 2014 and 2025 to be 7.1%, with only a 6.1% increase in the number of used liver grafts. In addition, the researchers projected only a 5.8% increase in the number of available donors.

“The projected growth in organs is highly heterogeneous across different United Network for Organ Sharing regions,” the researchers wrote.

Sensitivity analyses showed donor availability to be associated with BMI, donation after cardiac death utilization and liver utilization, therefore these variables affected the projections. However, changes in the Hispanic population or changes in the overall U.S. population growth did not affect the projections.

The projections showed different growth of donors in different regions. Region 3 of the United Network for Organ Sharing is projected to have the most increase in liver donors and region 10 is projected to have the sharpest decrease in donors (10.8% vs. – 2%).

“We found that population growth will outstrip the growth in donors, with significant regional variability in donor growth,” Parikh said.

Parikh further stated: “This study serves as an objective guide to the future of liver transplantation donor availability based on the best available data on population projections. The projected regional variation in organ availability is striking and thus may lead to further efforts to increase organ donation or reorganize regional allocation for liver transplantation as has been recently proposed.” – by Melinda Stevens

Disclosures: The researchers report no relevant financial disclosures.