Advanced metrics may better assess return to play after Tommy John surgery in MLB players
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Key takeaways:
- Advanced analytics may better assess return to play after ulnar collateral ligament surgery in MLB pitchers.
- Return to play rates were 4% at 1 year, 79% at 2 years and 99% at 3 years.
SAN ANTONIO — An analysis of advanced analytics from Major League Baseball pitchers showed time to return to full performance after ulnar collateral ligament surgery may be lengthier than previously reported using traditional metrics.
However, results showed the return to play rate was 99% at 3 years after UCL surgery.
“Advanced analytics [are] part of modern baseball. If you can measure it, you can adapt to it. If you can adapt to it, you can improve upon it,” Alexander J. Rondon, MD, said in his presentation at the American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons Annual Meeting. “My hope is that our study sheds light on the value of these advanced analytics to better qualify return to play, return to performance and outcomes following Tommy John surgery.”
Rondon and colleagues from Columbia University Irving Medical Center and New York Presbyterian Hospital performed a retrospective analysis of data from 119 MLB pitchers (mean age, 26.8 years) who underwent primary UCL reconstruction or repair between April 2018 and November 2023.
“This study, the first of its kind, utilized advanced analytics and pitch-tracking metrics that both the teams and players use, captured from high-resolution cameras already installed in the stadiums, to analyze outcomes following Tommy John surgery,” Rondon said.
Overall, 54 pitchers had advanced analytic data and pitch-tracking metrics. Rondon and colleagues found pitchers returned to play at a mean 558 days. They found return to play rates were 4% at 1 year, 79% at 2 years and 99% at 3 years.
Utilizing advanced analytics, Rondon and colleagues found pitchers had statistically significant decreases in performance metrics such as command and overall pitching ability at 1- and 2-year follow-ups. However, they found pitchers retained velocity and spin after surgery. They noted the pitches most effected by surgery were fastballs and sinkers.
“Pitchers saw a decrease in workload, mean [wins above replacement] WAR, 2 years postoperatively,” Rondon said. “Statistically, there was also a decrease in pitching plus and location plus, but they were able to reach 96% of preinjury levels. When evaluating preoperative factors to influence return to WAR value in full performance, there were no significant preoperative factors.”
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Rondon AJ, et al. Paper 6. Presented at: American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons Annual Meeting; Oct. 16-19, 2024; San Antonio.
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