Online calculator predicts user risk for developing CKD in up to 8 years
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A new calculator was validated and is available online to predict a user’s risk for developing chronic kidney disease in up to 8 years, according to data published in the Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology.
The calculator was designed and tested by researchers at The Ottawa Hospital in Canada.
“Our goal is to improve awareness of chronic kidney disease and to empower and personalize care for patients,” Manish Sood, MD, MS, FASN, a physician-scientist, Jindal Research Chair for the Prevention of Kidney Disease at The Ottawa Hospital and associate professor at the University of Ottawa, said in a press release. “Our calculator is a simple tool that can be completed by anyone without prior medical knowledge or blood work.”
In a retrospective cohort study, researchers used data of 22,200 adults with an eGFR at least 70 mL/min per 1.73 m2 from Ontario, Canada, to develop the calculator. Participants completed a comprehensive general population health survey between 2005 and 2015.
Calculator prediction equations included demographics, comorbidities, lifestyle factors, diet and mood. Researchers considered new-onset CKD the primary outcome of the study.
The calculator was further developed and validated using data of 15,500 adults in the U.K. Biobank; researchers tested models with and without baseline eGFR.
During a median follow-up of 4.2 years, new-onset CKD occurred in 9% of the cohort.
Final calculator models included lifestyle factors, such as smoking, alcohol and physical activity, and comorbid illnesses, such as diabetes, hypertension and cancer. Researchers noted that allowing participants to self-report lifestyle and health behavior could aid in predicting CKD.
The model discriminated participants with and those without a baseline eGFR and, according to researchers, was well calibrated. Additionally, the 5-year c-statistic was 78.1 and 66 with and without baseline eGFR, respectively, and maintained calibration in external validation.
“Using a detailed lifestyle survey, we developed and validated a risk equation incorporating sociodemographic, lifestyle and diet, and health information that may be utilized by the public to predict incident CKD ... The CKD pop-T can be used both with and without a baseline eGFR measure to determine the risk of CKD for up to 8 years,” Sood and colleagues wrote. They added, “The use of public-facing risk tools can aid in early identification and can be coupled with targeted screening programs.”
Reference:
New online calculator predicts risk of developing kidney disease. https://www.ices.on.ca/Newsroom/News-Releases/2023/New-online-calculator-predicts-risk-of-developing-kidney-disease. Published Jan. 20, 2023. Accessed Feb. 6, 2023.
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