Type 1 diabetes index estimates global burden of disease to 2040
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JDRF released a data simulation tool to measure the global human and public health impacts of type 1 diabetes to aid in identifying regional interventions that may lead to cures, researchers reported.
“In less-resource countries, the study estimates 35,000 young people under 25 years of age died in 2021 nondiagnosed. Efforts to increase recognition of the onset of type 1 diabetes are urgently needed,” Graham Ogle, DMedSci, general manager of the Life for a Child program at Diabetes NSW and adjunct professor at the University of Sydney, told Healio. “In high-income countries, type 1 diabetes onset in adulthood is more common than most people think and can occur even in the senior years.”
Researchers developed a modeling study, published in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology, fitting a discrete-time illness-death model to type 1 diabetes incidence and type 1 diabetes-associated mortality data to produce prevalence, incidence, associated mortality and life expectancy for these patients globally. Type 1 diabetes incidence data were available from 97 countries and mortality data were available from 37 countries.
Researchers estimated type 1 diabetes diagnosis rates using data from an expert survey. They modeled type 1 diabetes deaths using published mortality data and calculated life expectancy using life tables. The estimates were then compared with observed type 1 diabetes prevalence data from 15 countries. In addition, researchers estimated the number of people who would be alive with type 1 diabetes if the diabetes mortality rate matched that of the general population.
About 8.4 million individuals worldwide had type 1 diabetes in 2021. Of these, 18% were younger than 20 years, 64% were aged 20 to 59 years and 19% were aged 60 years or older. Also in 2021, researchers observed 500,000 new type 1 diabetes diagnoses among individuals with a median age of 39 years at onset and 35,000 deaths of nondiagnosed individuals within 12 months of onset of symptoms.
Regarding sociodemographic data, 1.8 million individuals with type 1 diabetes lived in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. In 2021, the remaining life expectancy of a 10-year-old with type 1 diabetes ranged from a mean of 13 years if living in a low-income country to 65 years if living in a high-income country.
Researchers also estimated 3.7 million missing type 1 diabetes prevalent cases in 2021.
Researchers predicted there will be an increase in type 1 diabetes prevalent cases of 13.5 million to 17.4 million in 2040, which is an increase of 60% to 107% from 2021. The largest relative increase of type 1 diabetes will be in low-income and lower-middle-income countries compared with 2021, the researchers estimated.
“Around half of the world’s countries do not have any type 1 diabetes incidence data, and fewer have mortality data,” Ogle said. “Furthermore, much of this information is now dated. Such current information is needed from all countries to guide improvement of clinical care, appropriate allocation of health resources, and advocacy.”
For more information:
Graham Ogle, DMedSci, can be reached at gogle@diabetesaustralia.com.au.
Reference:
- JDRF announces launch of global type 1 diabetes index. Published Sept. 21, 2022. Accessed Sept. 28, 2022.
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