Global lifetime risk for lung cancer in 2022 differs by human development index, sex

Key takeaways:

• On the regional level, as the Human Development Index rose, so did the lifetime risk for lung cancer development.
• Men vs. women had a greater global lifetime risk for lung cancer development and mortality.

Men and individuals living in high human development index areas had heightened global lifetime risks for lung cancer in 2022 vs. women and those living in low Human Development Index areas, according to study results.

“Our results showed that lung cancer is a worldwide health threat from the perspective of lifetime risk; however, differences among different regions/countries were significant,” Meng Li, of the department of diagnostic radiology in the National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital at Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, and colleagues wrote in Chinese Medical Journal.

In a population-based study, Li and colleagues used data from GLOBOCAN 2022 and the United Nations to uncover the global lifetime risk for developing and dying from lung cancer in 2022 overall and by various factors.

“Lifetime cancer risk is an index that indicates the cumulative probability of cancer at some age during a person’s lifetime,” Li and colleagues wrote.

Based on the adjustment for multiple primary cancers method, researchers discovered that the global lifetime risk for lung cancer development in 2022 across 185 countries was higher than the global lifetime risk for lung cancer death (3.49%; 1 in 28 people vs. 2.69%; 1 in 37 people).

On the regional level, as the Human Development Index (HDI) rose, so did the lifetime risk for lung cancer development. This probability was 0.33% in low HDI areas and grew higher in medium HDI areas (0.95%), high HDI areas (4.72%) and very high HDI areas (5.29%), according to the study.

“In places with relatively high socioeconomic development, the overall risk or probability of lung cancer is higher because of the long life expectancy and high awareness of physical examinations,” Li and colleagues wrote.

Researchers observed the same pattern when assessing lifetime risks of lung cancer death using HDIs, with a greater probability with each rise in HDI level: low HDI (0.3%), medium HDI (0.86%), high HDI (3.69%) and very high HDI (3.92%).

“The probability of developing lung cancer and dying from this disease from birth to 40 years was extremely low; therefore, the cumulative lifetime risk is equivalent to the risk from the age 40 to death,” Li and colleagues wrote.

On the basis of age, researchers reported that as people aged 40 years grow older, there is a reduction in the remaining probability of developing and dying from lung cancer. Seventy-year-old individuals had a 2% residual risk of lung cancer development, whereas the residual risk of dying from lung cancer at this age was 1.71%.

After dividing the analysis according to sex, the study found that men vs. women had a greater global lifetime risk for lung cancer development (4.22% vs. 2.68%), as well as lung cancer mortality (3.44% vs. 1.86%) in 2022. This finding was true in a majority of the included countries.

“The results revealed the complete measurement of lifetime probability, offering crucial data for planning health care systems worldwide and implementing targeted interventions for lung cancer control in diverse populations,” Li and colleagues wrote.

Reference:

• Chinese Medical Journal article sheds light on the global lifetime risk of lung cancer. https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1067006. Published Dec. 4, 2024. Accessed Dec. 4, 2024.