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Risk prediction model identified factors for 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery
Results showed 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery may be predicted with use of the Hip Fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam.
Researchers randomly assigned 1,050 patients undergoing hip fracture surgery between 2004 and 2010 into a development cohort (n=746) and a validation cohort (n-304). In the development cohort, researchers used logistic regression analysis to determine risk factors for the Hip Fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam. By using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and stratifying patients into low-, medium- and high-risk groups, researchers assessed discrimination and calibration in both cohorts.
After multivariable analysis, the final logistic regression model identified age 85 years or older, in-hospital fracture, signs of malnutrition, myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, current pneumonia, renal failure, malignancy and serum urea greater than 9 mmol/L as risk factors for 30-day mortality after surgery. According to results, the tool showed both the development and validation cohorts had good discrimination. Researchers also noted both cohorts had no lack of fit, as indicated by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. – by Casey Tingle
Disclosures: The authors report no relevant financial disclosures.