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US demand for TJR remains steady despite recession, study finds

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The economic downturns in the 2000s did not substantially influence the national growth trends for hip and knee arthroplasty in the United States, according to recently published data.

“The available data do not support the hypothesis that the anticipated long-term national demand for joint replacements has been fundamentally altered by the current recessionary economic environment,” Stephen M. Kurtz, PhD, lead author of the study, stated in a press release. “They suggest instead that the long-term trends for the demand in total joint arthroplasty appear to be recession-proof.”

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The new data support the authors’ existing projections—made in 2007 —that predicted a significant surge in demand for total joint replacement (TJR) through 2030. The new data were culled by revisiting the authors’ original projections on the demand for TJR and adding National Health Expenditure (NHE) data as an independent variable. The researchers conducted a historical trend analysis to compare the original projections with TJR rates through 2010 using data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample while a linear regression model was used to calculate estimates through 2021.

Between 2009 and 2010, they found that the total number of primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) procedures increased 6% and primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) procedures increased 6.1%. Additionally, the total number of revision THA increased 10.8% and revision TKA increased 13.5%. The NHE model projects a higher rate of primary THA than the 2007 model, although the demand for TKA is lower in the new model.

“These latest updated projections provide a basis for surgeons, hospitals, payers and policymakers to plan for the future demand for TJR surgery,” Kurtz stated.

Reference:

Kurtz SM. J Bone Joint Surg. 2014;doi:10.2106/JBJS.M.00285.

Disclosure: One or more of the authors received payments or services from a third party in support of an aspect of this work. No authors or their institutions have had a financial relationship in the 36 months prior to submission of this work with any entity that could be perceived to have influenced this work.