New research projects shortage of general surgeons by 2010

In less than 2 years, there may not be enough surgeons in U.S. hospitals to treat the critically injured or chronically ill.

A new study published in the journal Surgery suggests that the number of available general surgeons, who often perform lifesaving operations on patients in emergency rooms (ERs), will not keep up with public demand.

As the population continues to grow, there will be a shortage of 1,300 general surgeons in 2010. That shortage will worsen each decade, reaching a deficit of 6,000 by 2050, according to a press release.

That means people will have to wait longer for emergency treatment, elective general surgery and potentially some elective orthopedic surgeries if more orthopedists have to work in the ERs, co-author Thomas E. Williams Jr., MD, PhD, clinical associate professor of surgery at Ohio State University, said in the press release.

“People may wait hours in an emergency room if there is a shortage of surgeons. But the problem is that if you're not operated on within a few hours, your disease progresses, and that can create more serious problems in other areas of the body,” Williams said in the press release.

The projections were made based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau and The American Board of Surgery. The data included population statistics and projections, medical school graduation rates and information on the number of surgeons currently practicing.

The shortage was calculated by taking the difference between the number of retiring surgeons and those entering the workforce. This number was then compared to the expected need for general surgeons.

Previous research has shown that 7.53 general surgeons are needed for every 100,000 people to keep the current level of care. The current study shows this number will not be met as early as 2010, Williams said in the press release.

Approximately 1,000 new surgeons enter the workforce each year. Of that number, only 850 will practice general surgery. After accounting for retiring surgeons, that means only 145 new general surgeons will enter the workforce annually — far less than is needed given the continuous rise in the population, he said in the press release.

But some authorities have suggested that as many as 600 of these 1000 surgeons are entering other surgical specialties each year, including orthopedic surgery, creating an even larger shortage of general surgeons than the current study projects, Williams added.

For more information:
Williams TE, Ellison C. Population analysis predicts a future critical shortage of general surgeons. Surgery. 144;4:548-556.