US oncologist shortage ‘severe,’ projected to grow by year’s end
Key takeaways:
- Projections show the United States will have a shortage of more than 2,000 oncologists and hematologists in 2025.
- The median age of oncologists in the U.S. is 53 years, and many are nearing retirement.
The shortage of oncologists and hematologists in the United States will exceed 2,000 by the end of this year, according to market projections.
Improved screening and treatments, as well as smoking reductions, have saved more than 4.5 million lives since the 1990s, according to American Cancer Society. However, the growing number of cancer survivors has created a greater need for clinicians to care for these individuals, many of whom are older.
A report from Medicus Healthcare Solutions cited data from a paper published in JCO Oncology Practice that projected a 40% increase in demand for oncologists and radiation oncologists from 2012 to 2025, with only a 25% increase in supply during that period.
“We’re very concerned about the potential for a profound shortage and the impact that would have on access to high-quality cancer care,” Clifford A. Hudis, MD, FACP, FASCO, CEO of ASCO, told Healio.
’Immense strain’
The United States has 18.1 million cancer survivors, but approximately 32 million Americans live in a county that does not have access to an oncologist, according to the report’s background.
Medicus cited data from JCO Oncology Practice that projected a shortage of more than 2,200 oncologists and hematologists in 2025.
“The numbers reinforce what we’ve been seeing across the industry — a growing number of oncology programs are under immense strain,” Bob Dickey, CEO of Medicus Healthcare Solutions, told Healio. “Although we anticipated increased demand for oncologists, the rate at which supply is falling behind is concerning.”
Most people (88%) in the U.S. who are diagnosed with cancer are aged older than 50 years. Additionally, the majority (78%) of cancer survivors are older than 60 years.
Oncologists also are aging. The median age of oncologists in the U.S. is 53 years, and one in five are older than 64 years. Conversely, only 14.5% of oncologists in the country are younger than 40.
Most oncologists (53%) reported feeling burnout in 2024 and an even higher percentage (62%) said they would accept reduced pay for improved work-life balance, data cited in the Medicus report showed.
More than a third (41%) of oncologists reported they would consider leaving medicine because of the severity of their burnout.
At the same time, projections show oncologists will be needed more than ever in the future. NIH data projected the number of survivors who lived 5 years beyond their cancer diagnosis would grow 53% from 2022 to 2040.
Some areas of the country are better equipped to than others to handle growing demand.
Most oncologists (67.5%) work in urban areas. On the other hand, only 11.3% work in rural areas.
Individuals in rural areas have to drive an average of 51 to 97 minutes to get to a cancer center, and 70% of counties in the U.S. do not have access to active clinical trials.
“We are really heading for an exacerbation of an oncologist shortage,” Debra Patt, MD, PhD, MBA, FASCO, executive vice president of Texas Oncology and president of Community Oncology Alliance, told Healio. “It is a severe problem that we can expect will grow.”
The problem is compounded by shortages of oncology nurses, radiation technologists, dosimetrists, physicists, and PET and CT techs, she added.
“The combined shortages in the health care ecosystem are force multipliers for the access problem that patients face today,” Patt said.
Closing the gap
Patt and Hudis pointed to various strategies to reduce the gap between supply and demand.
Patt emphasized the need for change in the physician reimbursement schedule, which she said has decreased 26% compared with the Medicare Economic Index during the past 2 decades.
“We have a challenge getting our Medicare patients primary care physicians,” Patt said. “Every day in clinic, I’m calling people to ask them for a favor to see my patients with Medicare. That’s happening because there’s network inadequacies in the Medicare program because many primary care providers, like internal medicine specialists, close the majority of their clinic from Medicare beneficiaries because the reimbursement is so low.
“That’s not a financially sustainable practice,” Patt added. “However, if reimbursement increased, more primary care doctors would see a higher amount of patients with Medicare, and then I would be able to be an oncologist most of the time and not try to manage a patient’s primary care, as well.”
Hudis highlighted the importance of being able to find joy in the profession, noting this could encourage more individuals to join oncology.
“That’s a critical initiative of ours right now,” he said. “Cancer care is a really rewarding way to spend a life and, to the degree that we can enable the altruistic, dedicated people interested in that to focus on it and gain that reward and not be distracted by the workday challenges, we can, I think, address this problem in part.”
The data cited in the Medicus report support that theory.
Oncologists who worked with nurse practitioners or physician assistants had 54% more weekly patient visits than those who did not.
Oncologists reported several ways to decrease burnout, with 55% of respondents highlighting the benefit of additional support staff. Other suggestions to reduce burnout included increasing physician autonomy (47%), increased compensation (41%), more flexible schedules (38%) and lighter patient loads (32%).
Technologic advances, such as AI, could mean fewer physicians are needed to provide “high-quality care to more patients,” Hudis said, but he emphasized that is an “optimistic view.”
“The other part of the technology revolution is that the complexity and skills needed to deliver high-quality cancer care are growing greater by the year because of what we’re learning and how we’re advancing scientifically,” he added.
The health care community will need to identify — and adopt — effective strategies because the need for oncologists will not decrease, Patt said.
“Strategies to support clinician well-being and reduce the administrative burden of clinical practice are critical to practice sustainability,” Patt said. “This is why adopting digital health tools and AI solutions that can decrease the burden of clinical practice is so critical. Everything from AI enabled scribe services to clinical decision support will be meaningful ways to support oncologists in the incredibly meaningful work of being an oncologist while reducing the burdens of clinical practice.
“Cancer is the disease related to aging,” Patt added. “The age distribution of the population is changing, and we will see more cancer as a natural consequence.”
For more information:
Bob Dickey can be reached at info@medicushcs.com.
Clifford A. Hudis, MD, FACP, FASCO, can be reached at clifford.hudis@asco.org.
Debra Patt, MD, PhD, MBA, FASCO, can be reached at debra.patt@usoncology.com.
Reference:
- Medicus Healthcare Solutions. Examining the oncologist shortage.https://medicushcs.com/resources/examining-the-oncologist-shortage. Published Jan. 16, 2025. Accessed March 19, 2025.
- Medscape Oncologist Lifestyle & Happiness Report 2024: The Ongoing Struggle for Balance. https://www.medscape.com/slideshow/2024-lifestyle-oncologist-6016989#1. Published March 8, 2024. Accessed March 19, 2025.
- NIH. Statistics and Graphs. https://cancercontrol.cancer.gov/ocs/statistics. Accessed March 19, 2025.
- Siegel RL, et al. CA Cancer J Clin. 2025;doi:10.3322/caac.21871.
- Shih Y-CT, et al. JCO Oncol Pract. 2021;doi:10.1200/OP.20.00600.
- Yang W, et al. JCO Oncol Pract. 2014;doi:110.1200/JOP.2013.001319.
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Medicus Healthcare Solutions. Examining the oncologist shortage.https://medicushcs.com/resources/examining-the-oncologist-shortage. Published Jan. 16, 2025. Accessed March 19, 2025.