New cancer diagnoses projected to reach 35 million worldwide in 2050
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Key takeaways:
- Cancer diagnoses expected to climb to 35 million by 2050.
- Lung cancer No. 1 in new cancer diagnoses, deaths globally.
New global cancer diagnoses could reach 35 million by the year 2050, according to a report from the American Cancer Society published in CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians.
That would be a 77% increase from 2022, which saw roughly 20 million new cases and 9.7 million deaths.
“This rise in projected cancer cases by 2050 is solely due to the aging and growth of the population, assuming current incidence rates remain unchanged,” Hyuna Sung, PhD, senior principal scientist, cancer surveillance, at ACS, said in a press release. “Notably, the prevalence of major risk factors such as consumption of unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, heavy alcohol consumption and cigarette smoking are increasing in many parts of the world, and will likely exacerbate the future burden of cancer barring any large-scale interventions.”
Background and methodology
Cancer causes 16.8% of total deaths and 22.8% from noncommunicable diseases globally, and it is in the top 3 of mortality rates for individuals aged 30 to 69 years in 177 of 183 countries, according to background information provided by researchers.
The ACS derived the 2022 GLOBOCAN estimates based on data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer.
“The national estimates are built up from the best available sources of cancer incidence and mortality data within each country, and their validity depends on the degree of representativeness and quality of the source information,” researchers wrote.
Global results
Asia had the most cancer diagnoses (49.2%) and deaths (56.1%).
Lung cancer produced the most diagnoses globally (12.4%), followed by female breast (11.6), colorectal (9.6%), prostate (7.3%) and stomach (4.9%) cancers.
Lung cancer also accounted for the most deaths (18.7%), followed by colorectal (9.3%), liver (7.8%), female breast (6.9%) and stomach (6.8%).
Breast cancer had the most diagnoses and deaths in women.
“Breast cancer accounts for close to one in four cancer cases and one in six cancer deaths in women worldwide, with the highest incidence rates seen in France, and in Australia/New Zealand, Northern America and Northern Europe, where incidence rates are four times higher than in South‐Central Asia and Middle Africa,” researchers wrote.
Prostate cancer caused the most new diagnoses in men in 118 countries, followed by lung in 33. Breast cancer caused the most new diagnoses in women in 157 countries, followed by cervical in 25.
Incidence rates for all cancers ranged from more than 500 per 100,000 men in Australia/New Zealand to less than 100 per 100,000 men in Western Africa, and 400 per 100,000 women in Australia/New Zealand to around 100 per 100,000 women in South-Central Asia.
Lung cancer: Most diagnoses, deaths
Globally, individuals with lung cancer have 5-year survival rates of less than 20%, but many are preventable.
Tobacco continues to be the cause of most lung cancer diagnoses.
“Elimination of tobacco use alone could prevent one in four cancer deaths or approximately 2.6 million cancer deaths annually,” Ahmedin Jemal, DVM, PhD, senior vice president of surveillance and health equity science at ACS, said in the release.
The tobacco epidemic in transitioning countries has “the potential for a rapid rise in global lung cancer mortality,” researchers wrote.
Other notable statistics
Lack of screening and treatment services lead many low-income countries to have high mortality rates despite low incidence. For example, the breast cancer mortality rate in Ethiopia is double that of the U.S. despite 60% less incidence.
Worldwide, roughly 1,800 new cervical cancer diagnoses and 1,000 deaths occurred every day in 2022. HPV screening varied from 1% in some countries to 86% in Australia/New Zealand. Just 15% of eligible women have received HPV vaccination.
“With more than half of cancer deaths worldwide being potentially preventable, prevention offers the most cost-effective and sustainable strategy for cancer control,” Jemal said in the release.
References:
- American Cancer Society releases latest global cancer statistics; cancer cases expected to rise to 35 million worldwide by 2050 (press release): Available at: https://pressroom.cancer.org/GlobalCancerStatistics2024. Posted April 4, 2024. Accessed April 4, 2023.
- Bray F, et al. CA: Cancer J Clin. 2024;doi:10.3322/caac.21834.
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