Global burden of non-Hodgkin lymphoma estimated to increase 1.5-fold by 2040
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NEW ORLEANS — Looking at 185 countries, a projection presented at the ASH Annual Meeting and Exhibition suggests the global burden of non-Hodgkin lymphoma will increase by 778,000 cases by 2040.
“We saw the growing incident trends in non-Hodgkin lymphoma particularly among the elderly population and the large increase in the incidence may indicate the growing prevalence of risk factors associated with globalization, urbanization and economic development,” Yurou Chu, of Shandong Provincial Hospital, Shandong University, said during her poster presentation. “In terms of demographic change non-Hodgkin lymphoma incident cases were projected to rise nearly 1.5-fold by 2040.”
Chu and colleagues analyzed the incidence and mortality data of NHL from GLOBOCAN 2020, calculating trends for 42 countries over 15 years. They also included mortality trends from 39 countries, calculated from their cancer registries. Projections through 2040 were made by applying population projections from 2020.
Data from 2020 showed an estimated 545,000 new cases of NHL, with 260,000 deaths globally. Using age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), Chu and colleagues showed that a large burden of NHL lied with high-income countries, with the highest rates in Australia and New Zealand (ASIR = 12.5), North America (ASIR = 12) and northern Europe (ASIR = 11.4).
Countries with a low human development index (HDI), though, shouldered a larger mortality burden for NHL. Higher mortality rates were seen in Melanesia, North Africa and Micronesia.
“The incidence rates of non-Hodgkin lymphoma rose with HDI level, while mortality rates of non-Hodgkin lymphoma were not associated with the level of [HDI],” Chu said. According to the abstract, ASIRs of NHL rose with HDI (R2 = 0.41; P < .001), but countries with low HDI would have the largest projected increase in incidence from 2020 to 2040.
Lastly, Chu showed that countries with a higher incidence of NHL were more likely to have a higher incidence of obesity (beta = 0.399, P < 0.001). Additionally, though it was not significant, Chu and colleagues saw a trend for HIV prevalence and NHL incidence.
“The prevalence of HIV in low-developing countries may be related to the incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma,” she said.
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Chu Y, et al. Poster 1671. Presented at: ASH Annual Meeting and Exposition; Dec. 10-13, 2022; New Orleans.
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