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Growth of incidence, prevalence of diabetes may be abating
SAN FRANCISCO – After doubling in the 1990s and 2000s, the growth of diabetes may be slowing or abating, said Linda S. Geiss, MA, here at the American Diabetes Association’s 74th Scientific Sessions.
Simplifying the concept, Geiss noted that prevalence is a function of incidence and mortality. And new cases (i.e., incidences) are continually being added to the pool of existing cases (prevalent cases). Diabetes has reached epidemic status because the incident cases are more than three times the number of people with diabetes who die.
“The places in the United States that are too skinny are on the verge of extinction,” Geiss said, jokingly. The incidence of obesity in the United States has increased and the incidence of diabetes “have paralleled these increases.”
There are things that have influenced incidence, she said, including the aging baby boomer population, changes to diagnostic criteria, and the growth of the minority population who are at higher risk for diabetes.
Geiss presented trend data based upon annual cross-sectional data from the National Health Interview Surveys (NHIS) of non-institutionalized, civilian population aged 20 to 79 years from 1980 to 2012. The NHIS looks at self-reported diabetes diagnosis as it relates to age, sex, race/ethnicity and educational level.
In the timeframe reviewed, the population aged, became more diverse and education levels rose, she said. Incidence and prevalence of diabetes were highest among the oldest age group (aged 65 to 79 years) and lowest in the youngest age group (aged 20 to 44 years).
“With the doubling of diabetes in 1990s and 2000s, diabetes became a major public health problem in the United States and its numbers continued to grow,” Geiss said. “After a 15 to 20 year increase in prevalence and incidence, we are now seeing the first signs that growth may be slowing or abating.” Some plateaus were seen as early as 2003 and 2008.
Some subpopulations have not experienced this slowing in prevalence and incidence, including those with less than a high school education and non-Hispanic blacks or Hispanics, she said.
Given the uncertainty of the reasons behind these changes, future trends are not certain, she concluded. Geiss also suggested that sustained efforts will continue to prevent diabetes and its complications. — by Joan-Marie Stiglich, ELS
For More Information: Geiss LS. Abstract 170-OR. Presented at: American Diabetes Association’s 74th Scientific Sessions; June 13-17, 2014; San Francisco. cdc.gov/diabetes/statistics
Disclosure: Geiss reported no relevant financial disclosures and noted that her views do not represent the views of the CDC.