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Researchers predict substantial increase in youth diabetes by 2050
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The incidence for type 2 diabetes among youths aged younger than 20 years has the potential to rise from 22,820 in 2010 to 84,131 in 2050, researchers predicted in a recent study published in Diabetes Care.
To suggest such an increase, researchers used Markov modeling to create annual forecasts of the number of patients in three groups (diabetes, no diabetes and death). The 2001 prevalence and 2002 incidence of type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes from the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study (SEARCH) and the US Census Bureau population demographic projections were also used. The SEARCH study estimated that by 2001, roughly 154,000 patients aged younger than 20 years in the United States were living with diabetes.
According to data, to address variation among this patient population, two scenarios were considered for the incidence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes:
- Constant incidence over time;
- Yearly percentage increases of 3.5% for the age group of 0 to 4 years; 2.2% for patients aged 5 to 9 years; 1.8% for 10 to 14 years; and 2.1% for 15 to 19 years, for patients with type 1 diabetes. And, a yearly 2.3% increase for type 2 diabetes in all age groups.
For the first scenario, researchers determined that the number of youth with type 1 diabetes will increase from 166,018 in 2010 to 203,382 in 2050 and the number of those with type 2 diabetes will increase from 20,203 in 2010 to 30,111 in 2050.
Under the second scenario, researchers found the number of youth with type 2 diabetes approximately triples from 179,388 in 2010 to 587,488 in 2050. The greatest increase in youth accounts for minority groups, with Hispanics expected to represent 50% of US youth aged younger than 20 years with type 2 diabetes, they wrote. The overall prevalence is predicted to increase by 13%, they added.
Further data indicate youth with type 2 diabetes are expected to quadruple from 22,820 in 2010 to 84,131 in 2050.
“Our model projected that over the next 40 years, at the current incidence rates, the number of youth with type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes may increase by 23% and 49%, respectively,” the researchers concluded.
However, this number could increase, should incidence rates increase, they wrote. The researchers suggest effective interventions for the prevention of diabetes-related complications among all youth with diabetes.
Disclosure: One of the researchers is employed by Kaiser Permanente Southern California.
Perspective
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Stephen A. Brietzke, MD, FACP, FACE
This study is based on mathematical modeling, extrapolating from current incidence rates, and assumes that current trends will be unchanged over the next 30 years. Obviously some of the fundamental assumptions may prove wrong over time. However, we may want to look at this study as “the ghost of Christmas future,” as it were — a truly frightening possible reality if we do not reduce those trends in youth, namely the deadly combination of physical inactivity and overnutrition, which are promoting diabetes.
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