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Half of US population projected to be obese by 2030
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If upward trends in the prevalence of obesity persist, approximately half of Americans will be obese by 2030, according to a new report published in The Lancet.
Current data suggest that 99 million Americans are obese. Using information from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, researchers estimated that 65 million more adults will be obese by 2030, bringing the total number of obese Americans to 164 million. Moreover, as the aging population grows, 24 million of these people will be aged older than 60 years.
Further breakdown of statistics in the report show that, at present, one-quarter of men, regardless of race or ethnicity, are obese, whereas 46% of black women, one-third of Hispanic women and 30% of white women are obese. Projections indicate that prevalence would rise from 32% to 50% among men and from 35% to between 45% and 52% among women between 2008 and 2030.
Burden of disease
As obesity prevalence soars, so will the numbers of people affected by obesity-related health problems, Y. Claire Wang, MD, of the department of health policy and management at Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University in New York, and colleagues wrote in the report. If the projections are accurate, health care providers will encounter 7.8 million more cases of diabetes, 6.8 million more cases of coronary heart disease and stroke, and 539,000 more cases of cancer in the American population. Simultaneously, health care costs will increase considerably. Annual total costs dedicated to treating obesity-related diseases could potentially reach $66 billion, representing a 13% to 16% increase by 2030, the report stated.
Another issue pertains to the loss of productivity due to obesity-related morbidity and mortality. With escalating rates of obesity, the researchers estimate that 1.7 to 3 million productive person-years may be lost, potentially costing the economy between $390 to $580 billion.
Wang and colleagues noted, however, that the projections also suggest that a hypothetical program designed to decrease the population’s BMI by 1% may mitigate many of these problems. Although small, this change could prevent 2.1 to 2.4 million new cases of diabetes, 1.4 to 1.7 million cases of cardiovascular disease and 73,000 to 127,000 cases of cancer.
Worldwide issue
Wang and colleagues highlighted the U.K. as another country hit hard by the obesity epidemic. Similar to the US, the U.K. population is also projected to have an escalating prevalence of obesity during the next 2 decades.
According to the Health Survey for England, 15 million people there are obese currently; by 2030, estimates indicate that 11 million more people will be affected and the total number of obese people will be 26 million, according to the report. These soaring numbers could also lead to an extra 668,000 cases of diabetes, 461,000 cases of CHD and 13,000 cases of cancer. Increased health care costs would then reach £2 billion per year, the report states.
“As we look beyond these two countries and examine the similarities and differences across other populations, the availability of high-quality national surveillance data becomes increasingly crucial,” the researchers wrote. “Nevertheless, we hope that our dire predictions will serve to mobilize efforts to reduce obesity so that our predictions do not become reality.”
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Disclosure: The researchers report no relevant financial disclosures.
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