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Google search trends effective for outbreak surveillance
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Recent research confirmed the epidemiological utility of search engine queries by revealing increased searches in areas during illness seasons and outbreaks, while countries with mandatory vaccination had significantly less queries.
“Using chickenpox as an example, we demonstrate that Internet queries can be used as a proxy for disease incidence when reporting is lacking,” Kevin M. Bakker, MS, of the department of ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Michigan, and colleagues wrote. “We established that Google Trends accurately reflected clinical cases in countries with surveillance, and thus, population-level dynamics of chickenpox incidence. Then we discovered robust seasonal variation in query behavior, with a striking latitudinal gradient on a global scale.”
Kevin M. Bakker
To test the epidemiological benefits of data from search engines, the researchers downloaded data from Google Trends related to chickenpox from 36 countries, and examined data for seasonality. The search engine data, covering a period from 2004 to 2014, were compared against actual reports of chickenpox outbreaks in countries with available case reports. Statistical models were used to determine if search engine data could be used to predict chickenpox seasonality. The researchers then examined the association between national vaccination mandates and chickenpox outbreaks by country.
Bakker and colleagues wrote that the Google data were a reliable source of epidemiological data when compared with clinical cases, and Google searches were able to uncover previously unreported seasonal outbreaks globally. They also found that Google data can be used to predict the size of future annual outbreaks.
Further, the researchers demonstrated that vaccination reduces seasonal outbreaks by comparing the low prevalence of chickenpox queries in countries with mandatory vaccination with higher queries in areas without mandatory vaccination.
“It is really exciting to see human information-seeking behavior — Google searches — being reduced by vaccination implementation,” Bakker said in a press release. “It’s a very clear signal, and it shows that the vaccine is having a strong effect.
“These results demonstrate that if you institute nationwide vaccination for chickenpox, there is a very clear reduction in [Google] searches, which is a way to infer a strong reduction in total disease incidence.” -by David Costill
Disclosure: The researchers report no relevant financial disclosures.
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