High rates of type 1 diabetes in Europe’s youngest populations expected to persist

A twofold increase in cases of type 1 diabetes among European children aged younger than 5 years may occur during the next 20 years if current trends continue, according to data from the Epidemiology and prevention of Diabetes (EURODIAB) study group.

Researchers from Europe estimated the increase in age-specific linear rates among 29,311 new type 1 diabetes cases in children aged younger than 15 years registered with the EURODIAB study group, funded by the European Community Concerted Action Program. Data were retrieved from 20 registers in 17 countries during 1989 to 2003 and were combined with published incident rates and population projections to determine new cases throughout Europe during 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020.

Significant yearly increases in type 1 diabetes cases were found for all but two registers, and ranged from 0.6% to 9.3%; the overall annual increase was 3.9%. For children aged 4 years or younger, the overall annual increase was 5.4%, for age 5 to 9 years the increase was 4.3%, and for age 10 to 14 years the increase was 2.9%.

The number of new type 1 diabetes cases was estimated at 15,000 for 2005. The researchers predicted the number of new cases for 2020 to be 24,400 and for the number of cases in children aged younger than 5 years to double. Furthermore, the researchers predicted the prevalence of type 1 diabetes in children aged younger than 15 years to increase from 94,000 in 2005 to 160,000 in 2020.

“As there are currently no successful preventive strategies, all we can do is make sure that adequate resources are in place to provide optimal care for the increasing numbers of children expected to develop diabetes in early childhood,” Christopher Patterson, MD, of the Epidemiology Research Group of the Center for Public Health at Queen’s University in Belfast, United Kingdom, said. “This will help to reduce the burden of early complications which may otherwise occur in these children. We should also expand more effort in research to identify the environmental triggers for this disease as, if identified, these are likely to offer the best opportunities for prevention.” – by Jennifer Southall

Patterson CC. Lancet. 2009; 373:2027-2033.