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Researchers estimate nearly 1 billion with high myopia by 2050
Myopia and high myopia estimates from 2000 to 2050 suggest significant increases globally, according to researchers, which will impact planning services, including managing and preventing myopia-related ocular complications and vision loss.
This systematic review and meta-analysis on the prevalence of myopia and high myopia used temporal trends from 2000 to 2050 based on data published since 1995.
The researchers included data from 145 studies covering 2.1 million participants.
In 2000, 1.4 billion people around the world had myopia. In 2010, its prevalence increased to 1.9 billion, and researchers predict it will increase to 2.6 billion in 2020, to 3.3 billion by 2030, to 4.1 billion by 2040 and 4.8 billion by 2050.
The high-income countries of the Asia-Pacific have a significantly higher prevalence of myopia, the researchers noted.
In 2000, there were 163 million high myopes globally. In 2010 this population increased to 277 million and is projected to reach 399 million in 2020. By 2030, researchers say there will be 517 high myopes globally. By 2040, 696 million high myopes are projected and 938 million, or nearly 1 billion, by 2050.
By 2050, researchers believe the age range of myopia will spread, with those from 10 years to 79 years being affected.
The upcoming global increases are widely driven by environmental factors and changes in lifestyle from decreased time outdoors to more near work activity, researchers wrote. Genetic predisposition also plays a role.
“Based on our projections and assuming the proportion of those with high myopia who go on to experience vision loss resulting from pathologic myopia remains the same, the number of people with vision loss resulting from high myopia would increase sevenfold from 2000 to 2050, and myopia would become a leading cause of permanent blindness,” the researchers wrote.
Disclosure: The researchers reported no relevant financial disclosures.
Perspective
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In 2050, approximately 5 billion people will have myopia, according to Holden and colleagues. Myopia rarely results in permanent vision loss, but if we don’t do something to try to curb the onset or progression of myopia, the sheer number of people with myopia will present our global society with substantial vision loss and high costs. It is currently estimated that myopia costs the world $8.2 billion dollars annually when adjusted for inflation since a 1990 report (Lim et al.). To put that in perspective, 8.2 billion seconds from 2016, the year will be 2276 … and that is before the increase in prevalence.
- References:
- Holden BA, et al. Ophthalmology. 2016; doi: 10.1016/j.ophtha.2016.01.006.
- Lim MC, et al. Eye (Lond). 2009; doi:10.1038/eye.2008.225.