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New report finds risk of optometrist shortage
The American Optometric Association says the recent study details a different scenario than what the AOA released in June.
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Optometry is one of the health professions most at risk for a workforce deficit in the future, according to a study recently released by the Conference Board.
The organization announced in September the release of a job forecast that analyzed the risk of 266 industries and 464 occupations in the U.S. through 2022.
The report found that, in the health industry, specific doctors and specialists face a higher risk of shortage than others.
“[In health-related occupations], the same aging of the U.S. population that will curtail working-age population growth to as low as 0.15% by 2030 is also driving up demand for medical workers,” the Conference Board stated in a press release about the report. “At the same time, high education and experience requirements limit entry into the job market. The result is a dearth in many health care professions, including occupational therapy assistants, physical therapists and therapist assistants, nurse practitioners and midwives, and dental hygienists. Among doctors, optometrists and podiatrists are the specialists most at risk of shortage, with the general physicians and surgeons category not far behind.”
Calculating risk
Gad Levanon, a co-author of the report, spoke with Primary Care Optometry News about how risk was calculated.
Gad Levanon
“In our future occupational labor shortage index, optometrists are ranked near the top (as many health care professions are), expressing a relatively high risk of shortages in the next decade,” he said. “There are many components that go into computing this index, such as the gap between labor supply and demand, the typical amount of education, the percentage of workers who work part-time, as well as nine others. Projected labor demand is based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Projections for 2012-2022. Projected labor supply, which is harder to measure, is based on our own estimations.”
The authors also analyzed several variables, which included changes in the working-age population, women in the workforce and labor market tightness, to calculate a labor shortage index.
“Many health-related occupations are at high risk of future labor shortages, primarily because employment growth is projected to be extremely fast for these occupations,” they wrote in the report. “This fast employment growth is driven by both strong growth in demand for health-related goods and services and weak labor productivity growth.
“Strong demand is being driven by two primary factors: the aging population, which requires more health services, and more Americans receiving treatment under the Affordable Care Act,” they continued. “Although there have been many significant advances in medical technology, these advances have not significantly reduced the labor hours necessary to provide health services. The result is that the employment in the health industry is projected to grow quickly in the coming decade.”
The authors added that the number of new entrants in most of the health care-related occupations is relatively large compared to the workers expected to leave the occupation.
The authors noted that, particularly in the health care field, there exists an immeasurable amount of ambiguity that impacts their predictions.
“Our results for high risk of labor shortages in the health-related occupations largely rely on the BLS’ projection of rapid growth in employment in health-related industries,” they wrote. “Given the most recent changes in health insurance and the health care industry, there is a lot of uncertainty around future growth in the health industry. In recent years, we have seen a slowdown in employment growth in health-related industries. If that remains the case, the risk of labor shortages in health-related occupations is lower than our current measures suggest.”
AOA reports different findings
The Conference Board report is at odds with a study released in June by the Association of Schools and Colleges of Optometry and the American Optometric Association, according to the AOA. The associations’ report predicted an adequate supply of eye care providers through 2025.
AOA President-Elect Steven A. Loomis, OD, said in an AOA press release: “We are confident that our understanding of the eye care workforce and our profession leads to a more accurate projection of both the opportunities and challenges that we will face, and that’s the message we’re continuing to deliver to the public, the media and government officials.
Steven A. Loomis
“The bottom line is that optometrists continue to be well-positioned to meet the growing needs of Americans for medical eye care,” Loomis continued. “Optometry will provide sufficient numbers of highly trained and competent doctors to provide for the care of Americans for years to come.”
Levanon pointed out that the Conference Board’s report differed greatly in terms of methodology from the report commissioned by the AOA, but the results of the two reports are not contradictory.
“We did not survey optometrists (as we built this index for 464 unique occupations) and do not have direct measures of potential ‘excess capacity’ or other survey-based measures,” he said. “That said, I believe the findings of the article align well with our projections. While optometrists might be able to expand capacity, 100% capacity is difficult to achieve, unless it was in a shortage situation.
“Moreover, without any changes in the amount of new entrants into the profession (e.g., through increased residency opportunities), we think that the large employment growth for optometrists creates a relatively high risk of shortages in that occupation,” Levanon continued. “I cannot speak to the impact or future of ophthalmologists, however, as we were unfortunately not able to include that occupation in our index due to data availability issues.” – by Chelsea Frajerman
References:
Conference board report out of step with National Eye Care Workforce Study [press release]. American Optometric Association; September 15, 2014.Growing labor shortages on the horizon in mature economies [press release]. The Conference Board; September 2, 2014.
Levanon G, et al., for the Conference Board. From Not Enough Jobs to Not Enough Workers: What Retiring Baby Boomers and the Coming Labor Shortage Mean for Your Company. Research Report R-1558-14-RR. September 2014.
For more information:
Gad Levanon is the director of Macroeconomic & Labor Markets for the Conference Board and a co-author of the labor report. He can be reached at Gad.Levanon@conference-board.org.Steven A. Loomis, OD, is the president-elect of the American Optometric Association. He can be reached at SALoomis@aoa.org.