Study shows possible excess supply of eye care providers through 2025

The American Optometric Association and the Association of Schools and Colleges of Optometry have released the results of a workforce study that predicts an oversupply of about 9,000 optometrists and ophthalmologists through the near future.

As detailed by the Lewin Group, who was commissioned to conduct the Eye Care Workforce Study: Supply and Demand Projections and develop a computer model to continuously study supply and demand, there may be an excess supply of eye care providers through 2025.

The Lewin Group utilized several formulas designed to measure supply of the eye care workforce and demand in terms of visits and full-time equivalent (FTE) eye care providers, according to the study. The group also included data from the 2012 National Eye Care Workforce Study of Optometrists as well as data from surveys and databases.

In addition to increased insurance coverage and prevalence of diabetes, the Lewin Group factored in excess capacity, which was determined by a survey, according to the study. Optometrists reported in the survey that, without increasing the number of hours or days worked, they could increase patient capacity by 32%, or about 933 visits each year.

"Our estimates indicate that there is significant excess supply when this excess capacity is included and, though it declines modestly over the forecast period, it remains substantial at about 9,100 FTE by 2025,” according to the Lewin Group. “Accounting for two of the factors that could increase demand, increased insurance coverage under the Affordable Care Act and increased prevalence of diabetes, excess supply is reduced substantially to 4,400 FTE by 2025. Hence, if these sources of demand are realized, then excess capacity in the workforce will be substantially reduced, but not eliminated."

Officials with the American Optometric Association (AOA) and the Association of Schools and Colleges of Optometry (ASCO) expressed satisfaction with the results.

“Without a doubt, this is the most ambitious, comprehensive and forward-looking study of eye care supply and demand ever undertaken," Mitchell T. Munson, OD, AOA president, said in the release. "It fully recognizes both optometrists and ophthalmologists as providers of the eye health and medical services, including diagnosis, treatment and management of an array of diseases and disorders, which will be increasingly needed by Americans in the years to come.”

“While the study offers a snapshot of the workforce at this moment in time, one of the most important aspects of this project is that the Eye Care Workforce computer model will allow for continued analysis of the eye care market as external factors affecting both supply and demand change or are introduced," Jennifer Smythe, OD, MS, ASCO president, said in the release. "Workforce studies often generate as many new questions as they answer, and we can see some intriguing new avenues for investigation as we seek to advance optometry's ability to meet the demand for services.”

The Lewin Group also noted that there were limitations to their study, which include imperfect estimates and survey data, which could affect both supply and demand in the industry. Additionally, they addressed that they did not factor in “future changes in technology, epidemiology of eye disease, growth in supply through changes in class sizes or numbers of optometry schools, or other factors that cannot reasonably be anticipated based on current information.”

As detailed in the release, the project was funded by ophthalmic industry sponsors, which included Alcon, Essilor, Hoya Vision Care, Johnson & Johnson Vision Care Inc., Luxottica, TLC Vision and Transitions Optical.