US can expect fall, winter waves of COVID-19

ByRobert Linnehan

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The United States is moving into a dangerous period as it gets deeper into the fall and closer to winter, as speakers predicted another wave of COVID-19 to hit the country, similar to what Europe is experiencing.

“The whole planet was immune and naive to SARS-CoV-2 as of January, so the novelty of the virus vis-à-vis the population bulldozes through the seasonal effects in the first year of emergence. We did see summer waves in the United States, but I do expect to see fall waves and winter waves in the U.S. ... We need to steel ourselves for the months ahead because it’s going to be something to test our resolve,” Andrew Noymer, PhD, said at the virtual Octane MedTech Innovation Forum.

Novel and naive are the best ways to describe the challenges presented to the world in the face of the virus. As of 4 months ago, it has already mutated 30 times in North America, creating more challenges for treatment and diagnostics, Sanjay Patil, MD, said.

“We’re going to see incredible changes occurring in how we diagnose and ultimately manage the disease,” he said.

The medical, scientific and diagnostic communities have worked together to create novel diagnostics in a short period of time, such as the real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test. But new tests could consist of biomarker test strips or extreme high-resolution imaging combined with artificial intelligence to identify the structure of the COVID-19 pathogen, according to Rachel Hoffman, executive director, clinical development, medical device and diagnostics at Syneos Health.

“I’m seeing technologies that are very advanced come out in a matter of months, where the usual development life cycle takes years or even over a decade. We’re definitely on the right track,” she said.

However, if the country does not adhere to social distancing strategies and mask wearing or if a reliable vaccine is not developed, Noymer estimated 1 million deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19 may be a possibility by October 2021.

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Sources/Disclosures

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Source:

Lohr A, et al. On the front-lines of COVID-19. Presented at: Octane MedTech Innovation Forum; Oct. 28-30, 2020 (virtual meeting).

Disclosures: The speakers report no relevant financial disclosures.