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Will we run out of ophthalmologists?
In the past decade, the U.S. population has grown by about 11% while the number of residency slots has dropped by a similar percentage. Fewer physicians are training as ophthalmologists, and some critical social dynamics have changed. Meanwhile, the 65+ population will grow by 50% or so in the next 15 years. That's about 3% per year of compounded growth, compared with about 1% growth for the nation at large. And since seniors can consume as much as 10 times the eye care services of younger patients, this will result in a leveraged increase in the demand for ophthalmologists. Think of it as a 5% year-on-year rise in demand colliding with a 1% annual gain in supply. An open question linked to this anticipated MD-provider gap is the extent to which the abundant growth of optometric providers, aided by a generalized trend toward state-by-state scope-of-care liberalization (perhaps accelerated by national health reform?), will backfill the MD gap.
Get more expert perspective from John Pinto live at Hawaiian Eye 2010, to be held January 17-22, 2010 at the Grand Hyatt Kauai. Learn more at OSNHawaiianEye.com.