Finding the 'new normal' after the Great Recession

ByJohn B. Pinto

Our very human expectation is that things will remain the same. When things go a bit weird — as they have for the past year and a half (and longer if you're sensitive to such things) — we at least expect that when the weirdness is over, the "old normal" will resume.

While these expectations and hopes for normalcy are usually well-posited, I think we should be bracing ourselves for a "new normal."

Our life as a nation has been characterized for the last 2 or 3 decades by an acceleration in the consumption of all things:

Housing (From the 1,200-square-foot homes that once comfortably housed a family of five in our parent's generation to a "cramped" 3,500-square-foot home occupied by a couple today)
Credit (From routine 20% down payments to a "no money down" free-for-all)
Autos (From one car at most per family — and many carless families — to more than one vehicle for every driver in the house)
Media (From three grainy black-and-white TV channels to near infinite media content)
Food (From a relatively lean nation to a nation of fatties)
Energy (Remarkably, the average man, woman and child in America now either sets fire to or sends to the city dump more than 3 gallons of crude oil per day — and that's not counting coal, natural gas and other energy sources)
And, of course, health care (with costs now consuming an unsustainable 17% of the GDP)

Now, consumption up to the limits of sustainable boundaries is arguably a very good thing. Better nutrition, stopping short of obesity. Or better health care, stopping short of overtreatment or beggaring the public purse.

I believe that what we'll see here in America is akin to what occurred in Europe after World War II. A continent battered by two wars and a depression hit the reset button on consumption. Even 70 years and nearly 3 generations later, the European mindset is one of much greater temperance than we have here in America.

Our culture — inclusive of those of us in the Ophthalmic Tribe — will hopefully experience a soft landing as we arrive in this next era.

But as they say, "hope" is not much of a plan. So it's time to deliberately prepare for what's coming. Experiment for a week seeing more patients with fewer staff. Run the economic what-if scenarios as if there really was going to be a 21% Medicare fee cut. Rent your next vacation condo instead of impulsively buying a third or fourth residence. Tell your high school kids (or your daughter with two graduate degrees from Princeton) they'll have to work for designer jeans and their next tank of gas.

The times ahead will be exciting, even exhilarating, for those who can think ahead, be adaptable and are naturally inclined toward optimism in the face of change. Not so much for the rest of us. Choose wisely. Think big. Start small. Act now.