COVID-19 gains lost after social distancing measures relaxed
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Relaxing social distancing measures in the United States led to “an immediate and significant reversal” in gains made against COVID-19, researchers reported in Clinical Infectious Diseases.
“We previously helped demonstrate that statewide physical distancing policies in the United States were associated with significant declines in COVID-19 cases and deaths,” Mark J. Siedner, MD, an infectious disease physician at the Massachusetts General Hospital Center for Global Health, told Healio. “But, for a combination of political factors and because epidemic control was looking to be successful in many jurisdictions, these measures began to be relaxed in most states over the following months. In this analysis we sought to ask what occurred to state-level epidemic control in the U.S. when states repealed statewide social distancing policies.”
Siedner and colleagues identified all statewide social distancing measures that were implemented and/or relaxed in the U.S. between March 10 and July 15. According to the study, they used segmented linear regression to estimate the extent to which social distancing relaxation affected epidemic control, as indicated by the time-varying, state-specific effective reproduction number (Rt).
The study demonstrated that in the 8 weeks before social distancing relaxation, mean Rt declined by 0.012 units per day (95% CI, –0.013 to –0.012), and 46 out of 51 jurisdictions achieved an Rt less than 1 by the date of relaxation. According to the study, after relaxation of social distancing, Rt reversed course and began increasing by 0.007 units per day (95% CI, 0.006-0.007), reaching a mean Rt of 1.16 8 weeks later, with only nine of the 51 jurisdictions maintaining Rt less than 1.
“We had hoped to find that these policies along with direct and indirect experience with the infection in people’s lives, their families, and communities would lead to sustained practice of preventive measures, like mask wearing, physical distancing, refraining from large gatherings,” Siedner said. “Unfortunately, our results suggest otherwise. In the absence of federal support, it will be incumbent on state and local jurisdictions to maintain vigilance, and attempt mitigation efforts with testing and tracing to identify and control outbreaks.”
He said the data suggest “that we as a society and our leaders must also be willing to reconsider more restrictive physical distancing policies if we are going to safely get to vaccine availability without significant increases in cases and deaths, particularly among our highest risk and most vulnerable populations.”
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