Melanoma-related deaths expected to decrease more than twofold by 2050

By 2050, the number of malignant melanoma–related deaths in the United States may decrease 2.5 to 3 times lower than rates in peak years, according to data presented at the European Cancer Congress.

However, the number of melanoma-related deaths could increase until approximately 2030 in the absence of effective therapies due to an aging population.

Individuals at highest risk for mortality of melanoma were born between 1900 and 1960, when the dangerous effects of radiation from the sunlight were unknown, according to a press release.

“It was common for babies and school children to be treated with commercial UV radiation–emitting devices and exposed, unclothed, to the midday sun,” Philippe Autier, MD, from the International Prevention Research Institute in Lyon, France, said in the release. “This fashion faded in the 1960s as effective treatments, such as vaccines and antibiotics, became available and people became aware that sun exposure and sunburn during childhood were strong risk factors for developing skin cancer later in life.”

To determine if current morality rates were more impacted by age, birth year or recent introduction of treatments, Autier and colleagues collected melanoma mortality data from the WHO mortality database to create two age period cohort models. Researchers also used log-linear models to account for projected increases in population and aging to estimate the number of melanoma deaths between 2014 and 2050 in the United States, Australia and Sweden.

One age period cohort model assumed there would be no effective therapies, and the second model assumed a treatment was available and would lead to a 25% reduction in melanoma mortality from 2015 onward, given all patients had access to treatment.

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Peak age-adjusted melanoma mortality occurred around 2005 for men and 1995 for women in the United States. Corresponding years were 2015 for men and 1990 for women in Australia and around 2010 for men and women in Sweden.

By 2050, melanoma mortality rates were projected to be 2.5 to 3 times lower compared with peak rates that occurred prior to 1960 in the United States. The age-standardized mortality rate — or death rate adjusted according to ages of the populations — is projected to fall from 4 to 1.6 per 100,000 men and from 1.7 to less than 1 per 100,00 women.

Researchers projected mortality rates would be 2 times lower in Australia and 1.5 times lower in Sweden by 2050 compared with peak years. The age-standardized mortality rate is expected to decline from 9 to 4 per 100,000 men and from 3.5 to 1.7 per 100,00 women in Australia, and from 5 to 3 per 100,000 men and from 2.7 to 2.1 per 100,000 women in Sweden.

However, due to population growth and aging, researchers found melanoma-related deaths will increase until 2030 or 2035 in the absence of effective therapies. For instance, the number of Australian men expected to die of melanoma would increase from 1,007 in 2010 to 1,354 in 2030, then decrease back to 1,124 in 2050. Among women, researchers projected an increase from 410 deaths in 2010 to 570 in 2030, followed by a decrease to 544 in 2050.

“With an effective therapy, we would expect to see decreases in the number of melanoma deaths around 2030,” Autier said. “In 2050 ... in the United States [the number of melanoma deaths] would be equal to those of around 1990 for men, with 3,646 deaths, and to 1980 for women, with 1,876 deaths.

“As time passes, melanoma deaths will become steadily rarer in people younger than 50 years, and after 2050, practically all melanoma deaths will occur in people over the age of 70,” Autier added.

The findings of the study show that protection from the sun is important for prevention of skin cancer and more efforts are needed, Peter Naredi, MD, chairman of the department of surgery at the Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, and president of the European Cancer Congress, who was not involved with the research, said in the release.

“Malignant melanoma is one of our most common cancers, and we have tried different ways to increase awareness about protection and early diagnosis,” Naredi said. “If the predictions are right, protection from sun exposure is one of the best examples of primary prevention and this study proves all efforts to protect a population from unhealthy amounts of sun exposure are worthwhile.” – by Melinda Stevens

Reference:

Autier P, et al. Abstract 1144. Presented at: European Cancer Congress; January 27-30; Amsterdam.

Disclosures: The researchers report no relevant financial disclosures.