This article is more than 5 years old. Information may no longer be current.
Number of US cancer deaths continues to rise despite decrease in cancer risk
Click Here to Manage Email Alerts
Death rates from cancer have been declining in the United States for many years; however, the actual number of cancer deaths are predicted to continue to increase, according to a report from the CDC.
Results from analyses showed the total number of cancer deaths will rise by more than 10% in men and black women between 2007 and 2020. However, the number of deaths will stabilize among white women, increasing by less than 5%.
Researchers attributed these increases to an aging white population and a growing black population, and they predicted that these trends will likely continue beyond 2020.
Hannah K. Weir, PhD, MSc, a senior epidemiologist in the epidemiology and applied research branch of the CDC, and colleagues conducted this study as an ongoing effort to meet the federal Healthy People 2020 initiative, which calls for 10% to 15% reductions in death rates for certain cancers by 2020.
“Cancer projections can … alert researchers to the impact of changes in population risk before the full extent of the cancer burden manifests,” Weir and colleagues wrote.
Using mortality data from the SEER database, researchers found cancer deaths increased 45.5% among white males, 56% among white females, 52.8% among black males and 98.2% among black females between 1975 and 2009.
However, age-standardized cancer death rates — or the risk — declined in all groups. Results showed that while the number of cancer deaths attributed to risk decreased, the number of deaths attributed to population growth and aging increased for white males (–21.5% risk, 26.8% growth, 40.1% aging), white females (–7.6% risk, 27.6% growth, 36% aging), black males (–21.3% risk, 53.7% growth, 20.4% aging) and black females (–7.1% risk, 60.8% growth, 44.5% aging).
Yet, the CDC predicts the Healthy People 2020 target rates will be met in most cancers. Recent mortality data suggest the target for prostate cancer was met in 2010, and that the death rates for female breast, cervix, uteri, colon and lung cancers have declined. Data show the death rate from oral and pharynx cancers has stabilized, and researchers do not predict the death rate from melanoma will meet its 10% reduction goal by 2020.
Melanoma incidence rates have been rising since 1975, and death rates have been stagnant overall and increased some among older Americans. The CDC predicts that melanoma deaths, incidence rates and risk will continue to increase over the next 5 years.
To address this issue, the Department of Health and Human Services has issued “The Surgeon General’s Call to Action to Prevent Skin Cancer,” which offers ways to reduce exposure to dangerous ultraviolet rays from the sun and indoor tanning.
Researchers believe that other cancer death rates have declined because of improvements in treatment and screening, as well as other external factors, such as a reduction in tobacco use.
Likewise, a reduction in the number of deaths from breast, cervical and colorectal cancers among white women is indicative of improved treatment and proper screening.
The researchers added that their estimates are likely conservative because they don’t take into consideration the potential for continued treatment and prevention advances.
“Increased efforts to promote cancer prevention and improve survival are needed to counter the impact of a growing and aging population on the cancer burden and to meet melanoma target death rates,” the researchers concluded. – by Anthony SanFilippo
Disclosure: The researchers report no relevant financial disclosures.
Click Here to Manage Email Alerts