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NSCLC treatment market estimated to exceed $7.9 billion by 2020

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The global market value of non-small cell lung cancer treatment will increase from $5.1 billion in 2013 to more than $7.9 billion by 2020 with a compound annual growth rate of 6.6%, according to a report from GBI Research.

The company says that this growth will be primarily driven by the introduction of several premium therapies which either replace or combine with generic chemotherapies, particularly in second-line and squamous cell treatment settings.

An increased uptake of currently marketed therapies such as afatinib (Gilotrif, Boehringer Ingelheim), and the lack of marked drug patent expirations until the end of the forecast period.

“There will be numerous new drug market entries by 2020, and while some will only have a low impact in crowded sectors, other new approvals will benefit patient subpopulations that are untreated by targeted therapies,” Joshua Libberton, analyst for GBI Research, said in a press release. “Most notably, the squamous cell patient population, which currently relies on generic chemotherapy regimens only, will have access to immunotherapies such as [ipilimumab], necitumumab and nivolumab.”

GBI said they predict that these drugs are unlikely to replace chemotherapy and dominate the market, but rather will offer alternatives and diversify treatment options. While safety is still a concern, Libberton said they have clinically demonstrated improvements or non-inferiority to the efficacy of current segment leaders.

Despite predicting considerable growth up to 2020, GBI said that the market’s upcoming patent cliff will limit further expansion.

“Over the forecast period, the market environment will not allow premium entrants to be offset by the availability of efficacious generics,” Libberton said in the press release. “As treatment quality improves, physicians will be expected to prescribe expensive targeted therapies over generic chemotherapy options.”

This report was built using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research and in-house analysis conducted by GBI Research analysts.