Economic cost of cancer deaths projected to increase sharply by 2020

Two studies show high cost of cancer mortality; lung cancer accounts for one-quarter of cost.

Two studies published in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute calculated the economic costs of cancer deaths using two different methods and both found that cancer costs will increase dramatically by 2020.

Using a willingness-to-pay method, the cost of cancer deaths in 2000 in the United States was $960.6 billion, and is estimated to rise to $1,472.5 billion by 2020. A model using the human capital approach found that cancer deaths cost the country $115.8 billion in lost productivity; the estimate for 2020 was $147.6 billion.

“Regardless of the method used to estimate the societal value of premature deaths, these mortality costs are an important component of the burden of illness,” wrote investigators led by K. Robin Yabroff, PhD, of the National Cancer Institute in Bethesda, Md.

Yabroff’s study used the willingness-to-pay method: person-years of life lost were calculated using current U.S. mortality rates, U.S. population projections and cohort life tables, and this value was then multiplied by an estimate of the value of one year of life. The estimate used was $150,000. This method yielded an overall value of life lost in the year 2000 of $960.6 billion. Lung cancer accounted for more than 25% of the total, while breast cancer accounted for approximately 17% of the value among women.

The human capital approach was used in the second study. This method used earnings as a measure of productivity and estimated the value lost due to cancer mortality. With this method, the annual productivity cost from cancer mortality was $115.8 billion in 2000. “To put the productivity costs from cancer deaths into perspective, the annual cost amounts to approximately 1% of the U.S. gross domestic product in 2007,” the researchers wrote.

Other have noted that overall cancer mortality has declined in the United States. If the rates are reduced by another 1% per year starting in 2010, the cost would be reduced by $814 million per year. The biggest reduction in productivity costs would result from a reduction in lung cancer mortality ($390 million in 2010 and $416 million in 2020).

In an accompanying editorial, Scott D. Ramsey, MD, PhD, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, discussed the methods used in these studies and wrote that analyses such as these can be used in setting research priorities. Given that the NCI’s 2008 budget was approximately $4.8 billion, these studies show that the value of improved prevention, screening and treatments far exceeds the investment in research.

“Perhaps the primary benefit of monetary estimates is simply to translate what professionals and patients already know about the human costs of cancer into a metric that is universally understood,” Ramsey wrote. “As a tool for advocacy, dollar values can be powerful, particularly when they are weighed against other programs that influence human life and health under limited budgets.” – by Dave Levitan

For more information:

Yabroff KR, Bradley CJ, Mariotto AG, et al. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2008;100:1755-1762.

Bradley CJ, Yabroff KR, Dahman B, et al. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2008;100:1763-1770.

Ramsey SD. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2008;100:1742-1743.