Melanoma-associated mortality projected to increase 68% by 2040

If current trends continue, melanoma-associated mortality rates may increase by nearly 70% by 2040, according to a study.

Melina Arnold, PhD, of the Cancer Surveillance Branch in the International Agency for Research on Cancer in Lyon, France, and colleagues stressed that cutaneous melanoma remains the most serious malignancy globally, despite the fact that it can be prevented in many instances.

“Understanding the scale and profile of the disease is vital to concentrate and reinforce global prevention efforts,” the researchers wrote.

In the population-based study, the group searched the GLOBOCAN 2020 database for new cases and deaths with the aim of determining two things: patterns of cutaneous melanoma in 2020 and a projection for case and death estimates by 2040.

The outcomes were to be described in terms of age-standardized incidence and mortality rates per 100,000 person-years. These rates were then assessed by country, world region and four-tier level of human development.

Results showed that there were 325,000 new melanoma cases in 2020, with 174,000 occurring in males and 151,000 occurring in females. Also in 2020, there were 57,000 deaths, with 32,000 fatalities in males and 25,000 in females.

The researchers described “large geographic variations” in the findings. Australia/New Zealand saw the highest incidence rates among both males (42 per 100,000 person-years) and females (31 per 100,000 person-years), followed by Western Europe at 19 per 100,000 person-years for both males and females, North America at 18 per 100,000 person-years for males and 14 per 100,000 person-years for females and Northern Europe at 17 per 100,000 person-years for males and 18 per 100,000 person-years for females.

Conversely, in most African and Asian countries, melanoma incidence rates were less than one per 100,000 person-years.

In general terms, males were more likely than females to have melanoma in 2020, according to the findings.

The highest mortality rates were seen in New Zealand, at five per 100,000 person-years.

It was observed that geographic location had less of an impact on mortality than it did on incidence.

Regarding the future projected rates, if current trends continue, there will be 510,000 new melanoma cases by 2040, which the researchers noted would be approximately a 50% increase. Fatalities would reach 96,000 by that year, which was described as a 68% increase.

“This epidemiological assessment suggests that melanoma remains an important challenge to cancer control and public health globally, especially in fair-skinned populations of European descent,” the researchers concluded.