Prevalence of atrial fibrillation in US adults much higher than previous estimates
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Key takeaways:
- More than 10 million Americans, or nearly 4.5% of the adult U.S. population, may have atrial fibrillation.
- Previous estimates of U.S. AF prevalence in 2020 ranged between 3.33 million and 7.5 million cases.
Nearly one in 20 adults in the U.S. are estimated to have atrial fibrillation, many more than previous studies had indicated, according to new data out of the University of California, San Francisco.
“Atrial fibrillation doubles the risk of mortality, is one of the most common causes of stroke, increases risks of heart failure, myocardial infarction, chronic kidney disease and dementia, and results in lower quality of life,” Jean Jacques Noubiap, MD, PhD, postdoctoral scholar at University of California, San Francisco, said in a press release. “Fortunately, atrial fibrillation is preventable, and early detection and appropriate treatment can substantially reduce its adverse outcomes.”
Prior studies on the population-level prevalence of AF utilized decades-old data, and may be out of date.
Results of a 2001 study published in JAMA using data from Northern California between 1996 and 1997 estimated that 2.26 million U.S. adults had AF in 2000 and was projected to increase to 3.33 million in 2020.
Another study published in Circulation in 2006 using data from Olmsted County, Minnesota between 1980 and 2000 estimated AF prevalence at 5.1 million U.S. adults in 2000, which would increase to 7.5 million by 2020.
Noubiap and colleagues utilized statewide health care databases to estimate the contemporary prevalence of AF in the U.S. adults aged 20 years or older who received hospital-based care in California between 2005 and 2019.
Their research was published in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology.
Within a cohort of more than 29 million patients (mean age, 51 years; 54% women; 50% white), 6.8% received a diagnosis of AF.
The prevalence of AF increased from 4.49% in 2005 to 2009 to 6.82% in 2015 to 2019, according to the study.
The researchers estimated the current national prevalence of diagnosed AF is at least 10.55 million (95% CI, 10.48-10.62 million), or approximately 4.48% the U.S. adult population.
Over time, patients with a diagnosis of AF were more often younger, male and from historically underrepresented backgrounds, and were more likely to have hypertension and diabetes, according to the study.
“These data provide objective evidence to demonstrate that prior projections severely underestimated how common it truly is,” Gregory M. Marcus, MD, MAS, cardiologist and electrophysiologist at University of California, San Francisco, said in the release. “With the growing use of consumer wearables designed to detect atrial fibrillation combined with safer and more effective means to treat it, this current prevalence of atrial fibrillation in health care settings may soon be dwarfed by future health care utilization that will occur due to the disease.”
References:
- Go AS, et al. JAMA. 2001;doi:10.1001/jama.285.18.2370.
- How many people have A-Fib? Three times more than we thought. https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1057362. Published Sept. 11, 2024. Accessed Sept. 11, 2024.
- Miyasaka Y, et al. Circulation.2006;doi:10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.105.595140.
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