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Six lifestyle changes could prevent 37 million premature deaths over 15 years
Six lifestyle modifications at the individual level — control or reduction of tobacco use, alcohol use, salt intake, hypertension, hyperglycemia and obesity — can greatly advance the global effort toward attaining the U.N.’s “25 x ’25” goal for preventing premature deaths from noncommunicable diseases, according to findings from Imperial College London.
Conversely, researchers reported that an inability to reach these targets could result in 38.8 million deaths in 2025 from the four most prevalent noncommunicable diseases (NCDs): CVD, chronic respiratory disease, cancer and diabetes. This statistic would mark an increase of 10.5 million deaths from the 28.3 million in 2010.
Six lifestyle changes
The study, which was published in The Lancet, sought to evaluate potential influences that could advance or deter the 25 x ’25 target, an initiative to decrease premature deaths from NCDs by 25% in relation to 2010 levels by 2025. Specifically, the study evaluated the effect of a global reduction of modifiable risk factors.
In the study, investigator Majid Ezzati, PhD, and colleagues used country-level data on deaths and risk factors to estimate the number of deaths that could be prevented during the specified time interval by decreasing the aforementioned risk factors to globally established targets. The researchers analyzed the following percentage decreases: 30% and 50% decreases in tobacco use; a 10% reduction in individual alcohol consumption; a 30% decrease in mean population salt intake; a 25% decrease in the prevalence of hypertension; and stopping the increase in obesity and diabetes.
The researchers found that achieving these targets for all six risk factors would decrease the risk for premature death from the four primary NCDs by 22% in men and 19% in women between 2010 and 2025.
On a global scale, these decreases are analogous to slowing or preventing at least 16 million deaths over those 15 years in individuals aged 30 to 69 years, and 21 million deaths in individuals aged at least 70 years.
The researchers projected that the most significant benefits will likely result from reductions in hypertension and tobacco use and speculated that the more ambitious 50% target reduction in tobacco use vs. the more modest 30% reduction goal will reduce the risk for premature death by more than 24% in men and 20% in women.
“Our findings show that achieving risk factor targets will make an essential contribution to achieving the 25 x ’25 mortality target by accelerating the decreasing trends in mortality from cardiovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases, lowering mortality from lung and stomach cancers, and reversing the rising trend in diabetes mortality,” Ezzati said in a press release. “Most of the benefits will be seen in low-income and middle-income countries, where as many as 31 million deaths could be prevented.”
Support for 25 x ’25
In a related commentary, Rifat Atun, MBBS, MBA, FRCGP, FRCP, of Harvard School of Public Health, wrote that the attainment of these goals will largely depend on political cooperation and motivation.
“With political will and leadership, the 25 x ’25 targets are well within reach. But despite robust evidence, well-proven cost-effective interventions, and a compelling case for action made by [this study] to address risk factors for NCDs to save millions of lives, political apathy prevails,” Atun wrote. “Even with much discourse, meaningful and durable action against NCDs is scarce, with little accountability to achieve the promises made and the targets set at the General Assembly in 2011.”
In a statement released in response to the study, K. Srinath Reddy, MD, DM, president of the World Heart Federation (WHF), said the federation supports the efforts to achieve the goals set by 25 x ’25 for the prevention of millions of deaths globally.
“We are especially supportive of the ambitious tobacco reduction goal and have prioritized the WHO’s tobacco, hypertension and secondary prevention targets as part of WHF’s own commitment to 25 x ’25,” he said in the statement. “Global leaders from WHO and the CVD community, including the paper’s lead authors, will be convening at the CVD Prevention Summit at the World Congress of Cardiology in Melbourne, Australia, on [May 4], in order to help build a roadmap for action by the CVD community to achieve these important targets.”
Disclosure: The researchers report no relevant financial disclosures.