Future shortage of vascular surgeons expected

According to one predictive model, a 10% shortage will begin in 2030.

2009 Vascular Annual Meeting

A shortage of vascular surgeons and the added costs of addressing that shortage are expected to continue in coming decades, results from a study suggested.

Researchers examined projected population data from the U.S. Census Bureau and compared the projections with the net supply of vascular surgeons currently practicing. The researchers developed a predictive model for the study which assumed that in 2008, there were 300 million people living in the United States and 2,783 board-certified vascular surgeons. The model also assumed that vascular surgeons would practice for 30 years from board certification until retirement, that the volume of vascular operations needed would continue at the current rate of 284 per 100,000 people, and that the salaries of trainees would be $50,000 with benefits of 30% with $15,000 of additional medical education and training costs. The model set the workload of vascular surgeons at 300 operations per surgeon per year.

According to the results generated by the predictive model, there will be a population of around 364 million people by 2030 and a need for 3,377 vascular surgeons. The model predicted a shortage of 330 surgeons (9.8%), with 3,047 vascular surgeons in practice in 2030. The deficit of surgeons was predicted to grow to 486 by 2040 (13.4%) and 746 by 2050 (19.2%). The estimated surgeon workload for the population in 2030 is 1,033,760 operations, necessitating 3,446 vascular surgeons. The results predicted that only 3,047 surgeons would be in practice, yielding a shortage of 399 surgeons. In 2040, the workload would rise to 1,113,280 operations in a population of 392 million, yielding a surgeon deficit of 561 (15.1%); in 2050, the deficit rises to 826 (20.8%).

“A conservative estimate by both workload and population analysis, disregarding aging of the population, lifestyle choices of future vascular surgeons, as well as an increase in demand for services, indicates a shortage of vascular surgeons in the future,” Michael R. Go, MD,assistant professor of surgery at Ohio State University, said in a presentation at the Vascular Annual Meeting this past weekend in Denver. “The cost of training those vascular surgeons by 2030 will be over $1 billion, and unless the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 is revised by Congress, the cost of training additional vascular surgeons will remain a significant barrier.”

Cardiologists also face a workforce shortage, according to previous editorials by Carl J. Pepine, MD, Cardiology Today's chief medical editor.– by Eric Raible

For more information:

Go MR. RR8. Presented at: Vascular Annual Meeting; June 10-14, 2009; Denver.

I attended the American Medical Association House of Delegates meeting this [past] weekend in Chicago. The projected workforce shortages are very real for vascular surgeons and many other specialties. This issue is perhaps most urgent in the area of primary care. How to pay for residency and post-residency training in specialties such as vascular surgery is an ongoing dilemma, caught up in all of the other financial challenges facing the health care system. [At the AMA meeting,] President Obama spoke before the AMA for over an hour to an appreciative and mostly applauding audience, describing efforts to remake our health care system – an effort which will cost $1 trillion over the next 10 years. He outlined multiple areas of savings which are expected to pay for this reform. President Obama acknowledged the need to train and offer incentives for more primary care physicians to enter practice, but he did not mention vascular surgeons. I am not optimistic that the Medicare system, which pays for residency training, will be expanded to pay for subspecialty surgeons or cardiologists.

–Samuel L. Wann, MD

Cardiology Today Section Editor