Gout cases estimated to increase more than 70% worldwide by 2050
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Key takeaways:
- The global total of gout cases will increase from 55.8 million in 2020 to 95.8 million in 2050, according to a forecasting model.
- Population growth was the largest contributor to the increase.
The total number of patients with gout across the world is estimated to increase more than 70% from 2020 to 2050, largely due to aging and population growth, according to forecasting model data published in The Lancet Rheumatology.
“Despite advances in the treatment of gout, it is still underdiagnosed and undertreated, and is associated with an increased risk of mortality and comorbidities,” Marita Cross, PhD, of the department of rheumatology at Royal North Shore Hospital, in Australia, and colleagues wrote. “Therefore, quantifying the burden and pattern of gout cases by age and sex, as well as making projections for the future, are necessary to efficiently target the current and future needs of the population.”
To develop an updated global, regional and national forecast for gout prevalence, as well as years lived with disability, Cross and colleagues analyzed data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, the most recent version of the study. The researchers estimated gout prevalence and years lived with disability from 1990 to 2020 using Bayesian meta-regression of population-based data from 35 countries, as well as claims data from the United States and Taiwan.
Projections were also made to the year 2050 using “forecasted population estimates and a regression to forecast prevalence with the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) as a predictor, since health outcomes are closely tied to SDI,” Cross and colleagues wrote.
The analysis found a 22.5% (95% CI, 20.9-24.2) increase in global gout cases between 1990 and 2020, with a total of 55.8 million individuals living with the disease (95% CI, 44.4-69.8) in 2020. In that year, gout prevalence was 3.26 times higher (95% CI, 3.11-3.39) among men than women, increasing with age, according to the researchers.
Looking to the future, the total number of gout cases is estimated to reach 95.8 million (95% CI, 81.1-116) in 2050, with “the largest contributor” to the increase being population growth, according to the researchers. The age-standardized prevalence of gout in 2050 is forecasted to be 667 (95% CI, 531-830) per 100,000 people.
“The burden of gout increased globally over the past 30 years and is forecast to continue increasing over the next 3 decades,” Cross and colleagues wrote. “It is important to note that all regions had an increase in rates of the age-standardized burden due to gout from 1990 to 2020, despite large regional variations.
“Our findings highlight the need to focus on the prevention and management of gout as the population ages, especially among males,” they added. “Preventing the disease requires public policy interventions to control risk factors, in particular high BMI, and guide resource allocation to enable early diagnosis and access and adherence to treatment.”
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