Fatal drug overdose deaths down as much as 10%, although reasons why remain unclear
Click Here to Manage Email Alerts
Key takeaways:
- Researchers confirmed that fatal overdoses are down by 10% from last year.
- Several causes behind the findings have been hypothesized, but there is no single answer.
Fatal and nonfatal drug overdoses experienced “unprecedented” decreases of 10% to 20% from last year, which could be due to factors like increased naloxone availability, according to researchers.
The study findings — detailed in a report from NPR — showed a precipitous decline in state-level overdose-related mortality figures, especially among states in the Eastern region.
“In the states that have the most rapid data collection systems, we’re seeing declines of 20%, 30%,” Nabarun Dasgupta, PhD, MPH, a senior scientist at the University of North Carolina Injury Prevention Research Center, told NPR.
Healio previously reported that overdose deaths declined from 111,029 in 2022 to 107,543 in 2023, a decrease of 3.1%. During that period, overdose deaths involving opioids dropped from 84,181 to 81,083, whereas deaths linked to synthetic opioids like fentanyl decreased from 76,226 to 74,702.
The encouraging trends are expected to continue because the number of drug overdose deaths from April 2023 to April 2024 is predicted to decline by 10% nationwide, according to CDC data.
However, Dasgupta and colleagues expressed some skepticism.
“It was enough to dig deeper, but we were jaded,” they wrote in a blog post on Opioid Data Lab. “Excitement about dips in overdose indicators end up being transient or explained away by data artifacts.”
In the analysis, the researchers assessed state health department dashboards and several overdose metrics, like ED visits, calls to emergency medical services and overdose mortality, to determine if state data aligned with national trends.
They found that nonfatal drug overdoses decreased by 15% to 20% from the previous year nationally, whereas fatal overdoses were down by 10%.
“There is barely any public health intervention that has credibly achieved this magnitude of decrease,” they wrote.
Multiple metrics were consistent with the overall decreases. For example, ED visits were down 15% to 20% through the first 9 months of 2024, whereas first responders reported that nonfatal drug overdoses were down by 16.7% from September 2023 to September 2024.
Dasgupta and colleagues highlighted several hypotheses of what led to the decreases, but “there is no single obvious answer,” they wrote.
The researchers pointed out that increased drug treatment, law enforcement operations and marijuana legalization were unlikely to have contributed.
They added that that drops in overdoses seemed to align around the time of over-the-counter naloxone becoming available in pharmacies, “but whether those doses were actually used to reverse an overdose, and in what time lag, is debatable.”
Depletion of “susceptibles” — the term used to describe building up a tolerance of a drug through past use — was additionally seen as plausible by the researchers, but it is unknown whether there is enough population-level data to tie it to the overdose decreases.
Ultimately, “our conclusion is that the dip in overdoses is real, and not a data artifact,” they wrote. “It remains to be seen how long it will be sustained. If it is sustained, whatever caused it would be one of the strongest ‘interventions’ ever witnessed in this domain of public health.”
References:
- Are overdoses down and why? Available at: https://opioiddatalab.ghost.io/are-overdoses-down-and-why/. Published Sept. 18, 2024. Accessed Oct. 4, 2024.
- NPR Exclusive: U.S. overdose deaths plummet, saving thousands of lives. Available at: https://www.npr.org/2024/09/18/nx-s1-5107417/overdose-fatal-fentanyl-death-opioid. Published Sept. 18, 2024. Accessed Oct. 4, 2024.
Perspective
Back to Top
Anita Gupta, DO, PharmD, MPP, GMP, FASA
Although the opioid overdose crisis remains a pressing concern, a 3% decrease in overdose deaths in 2023 offers a glimmer of hope. Fentanyl remains a major contributor to these deaths and was involved in over 83% of opioid-related fatalities. This synthetic opioid is often mixed with other substances, including xylazine. The crisis has shifted over the years, with prescription opioids initially being the primary concern, followed by heroin, and now synthetic opioids like fentanyl.
For physicians, these findings have significant implications:
- Proactive engagement: Physicians must be vigilant in identifying patients at risk of opioid misuse and overdose, particularly those with mental health conditions or substance abuse history.
- Evidence-based solutions: Providing evidence-based treatment, such as medication-assisted therapy, is crucial in addressing opioid use disorder.
- Lifesaving access: Ensuring patients have access to naloxone, and any additional rescue resources for emergency overdose reversal medication, is vital.
- Collaborative care: Physicians should collaborate with community organizations and specialists to provide comprehensive care and support.
- Continuous learning: Remaining informed about the evolving opioid crisis and updating their knowledge on effective treatments and strategies is essential.
It's also important to note that the opioid crisis disproportionately affects certain populations. Physicians should be aware of these disparities and tailor their care accordingly.
Overall, physicians play a vital role in addressing the opioid overdose crisis, and by staying informed and proactive, they can help reduce the impact. Together, we can overcome this epidemic and create a healthier future.
Collapse
Read more about
Click Here to Manage Email Alerts