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Future physician workforce projected to decrease
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Compared with American Medical Association Physicians Masterfile calculations, the United States Census Bureau projected that there may be almost 10% fewer active physicians in the workforce by the year 2020.
Researchers conducted parallel retrospective cohort analyses of employment trends in the number of active physicians by age and gender. Data were gathered from annual statistics taken from the Masterfile and the U.S. Census Bureau Current Population Survey between 1979 and 2008. Projections for future physician supply by age were calculated using recent workforce trends.
The main outcome of the study was the annual number of physicians working at least 20 hours per week in 10-year age categories.
Estimates from an average year demonstrated that the Census Bureau counted 10% (n=67,000) fewer active physicians than the Masterfile did. The researches attributed this difference to fewer active physicians older than 55.
The Census Bureau estimated more physicians aged 25 to 34 years than the Masterfile. There was an average increase of 12% (n=17,000 physicians) in that age group during the final 15 years in Census Bureau statistics.
Census Bureau estimates of the number of young physicians were consistent with historical trends in the number of first-year residents. Bureau estimates of the number of older physicians were consistent with the smaller number of Medicare bills filed by older physicians.
There may be an increase in the physician workforce of 20% between 2005 and 2020, according to projections using combined Masterfile and the Census Bureau data. However, Census Bureau data projected 9% (n=100,000) fewer active physicians by 2020 than Masterfile data.
Census Bureau projections also indicate a smaller proportion of active physicians older than 65 by the year 2020 than Masterfile projections, 9% vs. 18%.
Staiger DO. JAMA. 2009;302:1674-1680.