Study: Surgeons may earn below minimum wage for TJA by 2030
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Key takeaways:
- The decrease in reimbursement for total hip and knee arthroplasty is forecasted to be about 82.7% and 84.21%, respectively.
- Total reimbursement for total joint arthroplasty is predicted to be around $650.
SAN FRANCISCO — With the current trend in reimbursement rates for primary and revision total joint arthroplasty, surgeons may earn below minimum wage for primary TJA by 2030, according to results presented here.
Evan C. Catton, BS, and colleagues created a historical view of reimbursement for primary and revision TJAs using CMS reimbursement data from 1992 to 2023. Researchers converted all monetary values to 2023 U.S. dollars to account for inflation and used polynomial forecast equations to predict the future of TJA reimbursement to 2030. Researchers used Relative Value Scale Update Committee standard times for procedures with the forecasts to establish per-hour rates for total hip and knee arthroplasty.
When adjusting for inflation, Catton said total reimbursement for THA and TKA decreased by 64.61% and 66.97%, respectively, since 1992. He added the decrease in reimbursement is forecasted to be about 82.7% for THA and 84.21% for TKA by 2030.
Total reimbursement for THA and TKA in 2023 U.S. dollars is predicted to be around $650 by 2029, while physician total reimbursement is predicted to be around $200 by 2028, according to Catton. Similarly, Catton said revision procedures are predicted to reimburse less than $200 per Medicare case by 2029. According to the study abstract, by 2030, surgeons who perform TJA are forecasted to earn $10.86 per hour for THA and $18.5 per hour for TKA.
“Given changes in inflation, [these results] could change,” Catton said in his presentation at the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons Annual Meeting. “As it stands now, there is another further cut for Medicare next year that has not been repealed for 2024. If you were to add that datapoint to this graph, it follows the exact same trend in the market.”
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Puddy AC, et al. Paper 61. Presented at: American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons Annual Meeting; Feb. 12-16, 2024; San Francisco.
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