Study: Ozone depletion may lead to more cataracts in the U.S.

By 2050, the prevalence of cortical cataract will increase above expected levels by 1.3% to 6.9%, mainly due to increases in ultraviolet B radiation from ozone depletion, a computer model predicted.

Sheila West, MD, and colleagues at Wilmer Eye Institute in Baltimore analyzed data on the dose-response relation between ocular exposure to ultraviolet B radiation and cortical cataract from participants in the Salisbury Eye Evaluation Project, a population-based study. Participants in that study ranged in age from 65 to 84 years old.

Exposure estimates for the entire U.S. population were derived using estimated ultraviolet radiation fluxes as a function of wavelength. Predicted probabilities of cataract were derived from the age-, sex- and ethnicity-specific ocular ultraviolet exposure data and were modeled under condition of 5% to 20% ozone depletion.

With ozone depletion calculated at 5% to 20%, “there will be 167,000 to 830,000 additional cases of cortical cataract by 2050,” the authors predicted.

Based on cataract surgical costs in 2003, the authors estimated an excess cost of $563 million to $2.8 billion in 2050.

The study is published in the December issue of the American Journal of Epidemiology.