July 08, 2005
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Calculation developed for risk of glaucoma development from hypertension

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VIENNA, Austria — A predictive model for calculating the risk of glaucoma development from ocular hypertension was described in a poster presentation here at the World Glaucoma Congress.

F.A. Medeiros said he applied the Cox proportional hazards regression model to published results from the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS). The formula calculates the 5-year risk of glaucoma development in patients with ocular hypertension.

“OHTS-derived predictive models performed well in assessing the risk of glaucoma development in an independent population of OHTS subjects,” Dr. Medeiros said in the poster. “A simple risk-scoring system was developed which allows calculation of the 5-year risk of glaucoma development for an individual patient.”

The study looked at 252 eyes of 126 untreated patients in OHTS who had an IOP of at least 24 mm Hg in one eye and at least 21 mm Hg in the fellow eye. All patients had normal visual fields as determined by standard automated perimetry and normal optic discs as evaluated by stereo photography, according to the poster.

Of that population, 31 patients developed glaucoma at follow-up. The OHTS-derived predictive model had better calibration compared with the model containing all variables, the researchers said.