COVID-19 vaccines saved 240K US lives in first 6 months, study suggests
COVID-19 vaccination in the United States saved nearly a quarter-million lives in the first 6 months that shots were available compared with a scenario in which there were no vaccines, researchers estimated.
The researchers created a model that simulated two pandemic trajectories: one with no vaccines and one with a vaccine program “that achieved only half the daily vaccination rate of actual rollout.”
“For each scenario, cumulative infections, hospitalizations, and deaths were compared with the simulated trends under the U.S. vaccination program,” they explained.
According to the results, COVID-19 vaccines saved an estimated 240,797 lives (95% Crl, 200,665-281,230), and prevented an estimated 1,133,617 hospitalizations (95% Crl, 967,487-1,301,881) from Dec. 12, 2020, to June 30, 2021. The number of COVID-19 cases averted was projected to be more than 14 million.
According to the researchers, vaccinations prevented a wave of COVID-19 cases driven by the alpha variant that would have occurred in April 2021, if not for vaccines. The wave had an estimated peak of 4,409 deaths (95% Crl, 2,865-6,312) and 17,979 hospitalizations (95% Crl, 13,191-23,219).
If vaccinations were administered at half of the reported pace, the authors estimated the U.S. would have still suffered 77,283 deaths (95% Crl, 48,499-104,519) and 336,000 hospitalizations (95% Crl, 225,330-440,109).
“As new variants of SARS-CoV-2 continue to emerge, a renewed commitment to vaccine access, particularly among underserved groups and in counties with low vaccination coverage, will be crucial to preventing avoidable COVID-19 cases and bringing the pandemic to a close,” the authors wrote.
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