Study: Malaria eradication achievable by 2050
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Malaria eradication, “a goal of epic proportions,” can be achieved by or before 2050 through a variety of strategies, according to a paper published in The Lancet.
“The Lancet Commission on malaria eradication was convened in October 2017 to consider the feasibility, affordability and merit of malaria eradication, to inform global opinion and to identify priority actions to achieve eradication. Countries and regions face many pressing health and development challenges, of which malaria is just one,” Ingrid Chen, PhD, associate director of eradication research with the University of California, San Francisco Global Health Group’s Malaria Elimination Initiative, told Infectious Disease News. “Thus, a 21st century commitment to malaria eradication must be justified based on solid evidence that malaria eradication is achievable within a defined time period; that it is worthwhile, in relation to societal benefits and the return on investment; and that the alternative to eradication is untenable.”
Chen and colleagues conducted an epidemiological analysis using modeling to illustrate potential future changes in the distribution and intensity of malaria based on relationships between global trends, interventions and malaria burden observed over the last 2 decades. These modeled projections indicate the impact of global-level social, economic and environmental trends and the scale-up of coverage of current interventions, Chen said.
According to the study findings, global trends alone could lead to a greatly reduced number of malaria cases by 2050, although pockets of low-level transmission would persist across Africa. Chen explained that it is possible to ensure a malaria-free world by 2050 or sooner through improving management and implementation of malaria programs and making better use of existing technologies, rolling out new technologies and increasing spending on malaria.
In terms of improving management and implementation of existing technologies, Chen said that effective management and implementation of malaria control is necessary for national and regional elimination and eventual global eradication. The report emphasized the importance of improved management capacity and the need for staff incentives, stronger community engagement and better data to inform decision-making.
She added that rolling out new technologies is also essential. In the study, the authors call for substantial investment in new diagnostics, drugs and vector control technologies. Chen explained that new tools will be particularly valuable if they improve surveillance, have long durations of efficacy, do not require difficult or protracted compliance from individuals, counter drug and insecticide resistance and are able to drive down malaria in areas with the highest rates of transmission.
In terms of spending, Chen and colleagues wrote that malaria eradication would cost more than $6 billion annually and called for an additional $2 billion per year. The authors wrote that this increase would preferably come from a “modest increase” of $500 million in development assistance and a “substantial increase” of $1.5 billion in government malaria spending.
Chen added that having a malaria-free world would “end the historic burden of disease and death due to malaria for good, permanently overcome the relentless evolution of drug and insecticide resistance and significantly contribute to the social welfare and economic prosperity in endemic countries and regions.”
Malaria is “one of the most ancient and deadly diseases of humankind,” Chen continued, stating that it can – and should – be eradicated by 2050.
“Malaria will not be eradicated under a business as usual scenario. Specific and essential actions are required at country, regional and global levels to ensure that eradication is achieved. These actions will be reinforced by a global commitment to pursue malaria eradication as a defined, time-bound goal,” Chen said. “Malaria eradication is a goal of epic proportions. It represents the best of human ingenuity and requires an extraordinary level of trust and collaboration among all nations. It is this bigger vision that will propel and sustain us in the long and sometimes difficult road to a malaria-free world.” – by Caitlyn Stulpin
Disclosures: Chen reports receiving funding from the Gates Foundation. Please see the full study for all other authors’ financial disclosures.
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