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645K people may die each year from flu, new estimate shows
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Researchers now estimate that between approximately 291,000 and 646,000 people die worldwide each year from seasonal influenza.
The new estimate is based on data from a large and diverse group of countries that were analyzed by researchers from the CDC, WHO and other global health partners. It is higher than a previous estimate of between 250,000 and 500,000 deaths that the researchers said was based on outdated information.
The new estimate was published in a study in The Lancet.
“These findings remind us of the seriousness of flu and that flu prevention should really be a global priority,” Joseph S. Bresee, MD, associate director for global health in the CDC’s Influenza Division and a study co-author, said in a news release.
To develop the latest estimates of influenza-related mortality, Bresee and colleagues contacted 62 countries and received influenza data from 47. Among them, 33 countries representing 57% of the world’s population contributed death records and seasonal influenza surveillance information for a minimum of 4 years from 1999 to 2015. Bresee and colleagues used these data to generate global estimates for the number of deaths from respiratory illnesses related to influenza.
According to their calculations, patients aged 75 years and older had the highest estimated influenza-related mortality rates, ranging from 51.3 to 99.4 deaths per 100,000 individuals.
The highest mortality rate was seen in sub-Saharan Africa, where it ranged from 2.8 to 16.5 per 100,000 individuals. Countries in the Eastern Mediterranean and Southeast Asia also had high rates of influenza-related deaths, Bresee and colleagues reported.
The CDC noted that many developing countries do not have sufficient influenza vaccination programs to produce and distribute the seasonal vaccine.
“This work adds to a growing global understanding of the burden of influenza and populations at highest risk,” CDC researcher A. Danielle Iuliano, PhD, MPH, said in the release. “It builds the evidence base for influenza vaccination programs in other countries.” – Gerard Gallagher
Reference:
Iuliano AD, et al. Lancet. 2017;doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(17)33293-2.
Disclosures: Bresee and Iuliano report no relevant financial disclosures. Please see the study for all other authors’ relevant financial disclosures.