Stock market models accurately predict changes in HIV over time

Mathematical models that were originally developed to predict changes in stock prices accurately predicted changes in the properties of HIV, suggesting that such models could be used for the development of a future vaccine for HIV, according to data published in PLOS Biology.

“HIV is a highly dynamic virus. It continuously changes, both in an infected individual and, as a consequence of that, in the greater population,” Hillel Haim, MD, PhD, assistant professor of microbiology in the University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, said in a press release. “When we make a vaccine, we are essentially trying to mimic the virus so that the immune system will learn how to recognize and attack the real virus. The problem we are trying to solve for HIV is how can you design a vaccine to hit a moving and continuously changing target?”

Haim and colleagues performed a cross-sectional and longitudinal study of HIV envelope glycoproteins in blood samples collected from patients with HIV from Iowa between 1982 and 2012. The researchers evaluated 371 envelope glycoproteins from 113 patients living in Iowa City, looking for characteristics that would predict patterns of change that were observed over the period included in the study.

The changes over time were similar to the properties of virus particle diffusion. The researchers found that some properties of envelope glycoproteins contained within the same blood samples were highly variable over time, whereas others remained relatively similar — a characteristic variance known as “volatility,” also seen in stock markets. Using a diffusion-based model, Haim and colleagues were able to accurately describe the 30-year evolution of HIV envelope glycoproteins.

“We found that volatilities of [envelope glycoprotein] properties measured from a few patient samples from the 1980s allowed us to accurately predict how these properties of the virus evolved in the Iowa population over the course of 30 years,” Haim said in the press release. “Fortunately, relative to the financial market models that inspired this work, our predictions of changes in HIV are remarkably accurate due to the highly conserved nature of randomness in this virus.” – by Andy Polhamus

Disclosure:  The researchers report no relevant financial disclosures.