This article is more than 5 years old. Information may no longer be current.
Early hospitalization vital during Ebola epidemics
Click Here to Manage Email Alerts
Researchers reported that the odds of dying increased by 11% each day an Ebola patient was not hospitalized, highlighting the importance of reducing delays between symptom onset and hospitalization.
Alicia Rosello, MPH, a PhD student at University College London, and colleagues retrospectively analyzed past Ebola outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), a country that has experienced the most outbreaks since the virus was discovered there in 1976, then known as Zaire. The researchers collected data from almost 1,000 Ebola cases spanning 38 years from across the country.
Their analysis showed that outbreaks with an initially high reproduction number — in which a case of Ebola virus disease (EVD) was likely to transmit the virus to at least three others — were more swiftly brought under control. Conversely, outbreaks with a lower reproduction number generally caused larger outbreaks — as was the case during the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa. According to the researchers, this finding “indicates the need for any future EVD [outbreak] to be met with rapid national and international response.”
The overall case fatality ratio (CFR) in the DRC was 79% (95% CI, 76.4-81.6), but Rosello and colleagues said there were significant differences between epidemics and within the same epidemics over time.
Results suggested the incidence of disease was highest in adults aged 25 to 64 years. Those aged 5 to 15 years were the least affected by EVD, while the CFR was comparatively higher for patients aged younger than 5 years. In all EVD cases aged younger than 2 years, the disease was fatal, the researchers said.
Results also showed that the odds of dying from EVD declined on average by 31% (95% CI, 3.1%-52%) each month after the start of an outbreak, and every day in which hospitalization was delayed for a symptomatic individual was associated with an 11% increased risk for death (95% CI, 1.8%-20.7%).
The researchers described the findings as “an invaluable resource for studying the epidemiology and clinical features of EVD,” and are consistent with other estimates. – by John Schoen
Disclosure: The researchers report no relevant financial disclosures.
Click Here to Manage Email Alerts