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Study Predicts HCV Will Become Rare Disease by 2036
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Kabiri M. Ann Intern Med. 2014;161:170-180.
Effective drugs and screening could make hepatitis C virus a rare disease in the United States by 2036.
Researchers used a mathematical model with information from several sources, including more than 30 clinical trials, to predict the impact of the new direct-acting antivirals and the use of screening for chronic HCV and a computer model to analyze the predict disease trends from 2001 to 2050. The model was validated with historical data including a recently published national survey on HCV prevalence.
According to the model, with new screening guidelines and therapies, it is projected that HCV will affect only one in 1,500 people in the United States by 2036. The model also predicted that one-time HCV screening of baby boomers beginning in 2013 would help identify 487,000 cases during the next decade. In contrast, one-time universal screening would help identify 933,700 cases during the next decade.
In other results, recently approved HCV therapies and one-time birth-cohort screening are estimated to prevent 124,200 cases of decompensated cirrhosis, 78,800 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, 126,500 liver-related deaths and 9,900 liver transplantations by 2050.
Disclosure: The study was funded by the National Institutes of Health.