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Flu, not cold days, tied to excess wintertime deaths in UK
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Warmer temperatures as a result of climate change are not responsible for a decline in excess deaths during the winter months in the United Kingdom, according to new data published in Nature Climate Change.
“We’ve shown that the number of cold days in a winter no longer explains its number of excess deaths,” study researcher Philip Staddon, DPhil, of the European Centre for Environment and Human Health at the University of Exeter Medical School, said in a press release. “Instead, the main cause of year-to-year variation in winter mortality in recent decades has been flu.”
To assess factors influencing variations in excess winter deaths in the United Kingdom, Staddon and colleagues analyzed data spanning the past 60 years on daily mean temperatures, population characteristics, excess winter mortality and the incidence of influenza-like illness. The researchers also calculated the number of days each winter period below 5°C (41°F). Mutlifactor regression analyses were used to identify factors that were independently associated with excess mortality.
The researchers found that from 1951 to 1971, the number of cold days was significantly associated with increased deaths during winter periods (P<.002). From 1971 to 1991, excess winter deaths were linked to both the number of cold days (P<.023) and influenza activity (P<.003). However, between 1991 and 2011, influenza activity alone was causally associated with variations in excess deaths (P<.001).
Staddon and colleagues suggested that the decrease in excess winter deaths during the study period can be attributed to improvements in housing, health care and incomes and a greater public awareness of risks associated with the cold.
The researchers also noted that the results have important policy implications.
“Both policymakers and health professionals have, for some time, assumed that a potential benefit from climate change will be a reduction in deaths seen over winter,” Staddon said. “We’ve shown that this is unlikely to be the case. Efforts to combat winter mortality due to cold spells should not be lessened, and those against flu and flu-like illnesses should also be maintained.”
Disclosure: The researchers report no relevant financial disclosures.
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