This article is more than 5 years old. Information may no longer be current.
Antiviral stockpiles effective strategy for control of new influenza strains
Click Here to Manage Email Alerts
The expeditious use of antiviral stockpiles appears to be the most effective means of controlling novel influenza strains if no matching vaccine is available, according to results of a recent study.
Using computer simulations based on models of influenza, researchers explored strategies of influenza control in the immediate absence of a matching vaccine. They created two regional models (epidemic region A and non-epidemic region B) that included variables of epidemic prevention and control, combined with the values of a standard compartment model of infectious diseases and new influenza defense. They used Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle to calculate the most effective epidemic control approaches, as well as minimum antiviral stockpiles associated with these strategies.
The study data indicate that where matching influenza vaccines are unavailable, the immediate use of sufficient antiviral stockpiles decreased the aggregate and peak case numbers of clinically infected patients by shortening the duration of the infectious period.
In cases of limited stockpiles, the researchers recommended the streamlined use of antiviral supplies during the early stages of the epidemic.
The isolation of clinically infected patients in hospitals specializing in infectious diseases was found to be an effective approach to controlling the peak of infection. Moreover, this strategy could be successfully combined with antiviral treatment, particularly in the event of inadequate antiviral stockpiles. Immigration detection, the detection of influenza at ports of entry, eg, measuring body temperature, was found to be the least cost-effective approach, and was especially weak in terms of identifying exposed and subclinical cases. The researchers found that while immigration detection may have the limited capacity to decrease the number of imported cases, it could not control the spread of an epidemic.
The study authors reported that a combined strategy of all three approaches was particularly efficacious, and significantly controlled both cumulative and peak proportions of influenza.
“Based on the results from these models, we can, to some extent, predict the epidemic trends and make optimal plans for the control of new influenza strains,” the researchers wrote. “We believe that these simulation results may have important significance for departments of epidemic control; for example, in guiding the determination of antiviral stockpiles and optimal control strategies.”
Disclosure: The researchers report no relevant financial disclosures.
Click Here to Manage Email Alerts