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Child mortality declining in South Africa
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Mortality in South African children younger than 5 years has decreased an estimated 6% to 10% since 2006, with declines in AIDS-related mortality driving the downward trend, according to researchers.
In 2005, South Africa was one of four countries with an under-5 mortality rate higher than the 1990 Millennium Development Goal (MDG) baseline. But scaled-up efforts to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission and expanded availability of antiretroviral therapies have resulted in substantial mortality decreases during the past 5 years.
“After years of rising mortality rates, the mortality picture for South Africa’s children has shifted drastically. Opaque and conflicting messages have been replaced by data that can be used for action and accountability,” Kate Kerber, MPH, of University of the Western Cape in Belleville, South Africa, reported in AIDS, the official journal of the International AIDS Society.
To assess the country’s progress, Kerber and colleagues analyzed data from three national models used to estimate AIDS deaths in children (Spectrum, the Actuarial Society of South Africa and University of Cape Town models), and two global models for estimating child mortality (United Nations Interagency Group for Mortality Estimation and the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation models).
Differences between the models resulted in varying point estimates for under-5 mortality, but trends were similar, with mortality increasing to a peak around 2005, at which time 37% to 39% of child deaths were attributable to AIDS.
Since the peak in 2005, improvements in South African under-5 mortality have been the fourth-fastest globally and second to Rwanda among African countries. The proportion of under-5 deaths due to AIDS has fallen to between 11% and 24%.
Officially, South Africa is still not on pace to achieve the MDG of a two-thirds reduction in under-five mortality by 2015 (with 1990 as the baseline year), but if current progress continues, the nation could meet this goal by 2020.
Disclosure: The researchers report no relevant financial disclosures.
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